Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+164 | 7.5 -108 / -112 | +1.5 -128 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -196 | 7.5 -108 / -112 | -1.5 +106 |
The NL favorite Dodgers put forth a very impressive Opening Day performance, besting the visiting Diamondbacks, 8-2, with a number of potential strengths in 2023 on display.
Dustin May, a 25-year-old right-hander, will start for the Dodgers on Friday. May is a candidate to have a full-fledged breakout season in 2023 after displaying impressive stuff in spring training, now fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery.
Arizona will start Merrill Kelly, who will look to shake off a tough finish to the World Baseball Classic with Team USA and get started on a promising campaign of his own.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Fresh off somewhat of a tough showing at the World Baseball Classic, Kelly will get the ball looking to perform better in his first start of the season.
In 2022, he owned a 3.37 ERA and a 3.62 xERA with an 8.0 K/9 rate and 2.7 BB/9.
Most projections have the 34-year-old righty's numbers dipping a little entering this season. ZiPS projects Kelly to pitch to an ERA of 4.27, while THE BAT sits a little lower with a projected mark of 4.55.
Kelly's velocity is below league average at this point in his career, and projecting a little more hard contact in 2023 seems very reasonable.
Kelly threw 65 pitches in his final spring start and should be stretched out to throw around 80-85 pitches Friday.
The Dodgers have historically given Kelly fits, as he has pitched to a 5.97 ERA versus Los Angeles.
Offensively the Diamondbacks should prove to be a very scrappy bunch this season, particularly with their ability to steal bases and generate chaos on the basepaths.
The additions of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno's from Toronto both hold some serious upside, and the Diamondbacks likely hit a winner in the Daulton Varsho trade.
Corbin Carroll is rightfully priced as the NL Rookie of the Year favorite and will lead the way for a speedy young outfield.
FanGraphs projects Arizona to score 4.29 runs per game playing out of a very tough NL West, which should make it a lower middle-of-the-pack offense.
If anything, that could prove to be a bearish take on this team. Bettors should tread lightly fading the Diamondbacks, who could be slightly undervalued with their regular season win total set at 74.5.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles' Opening Day thrashing displayed a number of causes for optimism for what should be another extremely potent lineup.
Miguel Vargas, James Outman and Miguel Rojas all performed well and combined for four runs and four hits out of the 7-8-9 holes.
Even if J.D. Martinez continues to regress, the Dodgers are offering some strong arguments as to why they can help cover the losses of Trea Turner and and Justin Turner.
Many are counting on a serious bounce-back from Max Muncy, who comes into the season fully healthy and ready to go. Muncy is a likely candidate to hit to improved splits without the shift after pulling the ball 41.9% of the time in 2022.
FanGraphs projects Los Angeles to have the sixth-most potent offense in baseball with an average of 4.57 runs scored per game. The Dodgers' 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching was the top mark in the league a season ago.
With Trea Turner and Justin Turner out of the picture, the Dodgers' splits versus righties could regress slightly in 2023, but most would still project top-five results or better.
Many around the Dodgers organization are holding out hope that Dustin May can have a full-fledged breakout as well this season.
May pitched to a 3.67 xERA in a small sample of 30 innings in 2022, but there is some logic suggesting he could improve on that mark in 2023.
May claimed that this is the best he's felt since his Tommy John surgery in mid-March and has backed up that talk with a strong spring training in which he routinely touched triple digits with his fastball.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
Arizona could potentially be an undervalued, scrappy bunch this season, which is rewarding to bettors in the early going. However, Kelly is not one of the reasons why, and I think the strengths of this Los Angeles can offer him a tough time.
The Dodgers have always given fits to Kelly, and while some of the names in the lineup have changed, they will still present an extremely formidable challenge for any righty this season.
May has some serious upside for the Dodgers, and it's entirely possible that betting lines surrounding his starts look a bit different a few months from now.
Considering the strength of this Los Angeles lineup with a potentially dominant starter on the mound, I see -120 as a very playable number to back the Dodgers in the first five innings.
Pick: Dodgers F5 Innings -0.5 (-120) |
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