The Detroit Tigers secured the victory on Tuesday to open up their series against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners have now lost two straight after taking two of three from the Phillies over the weekend.
Wednesday night features a terrific pitching duel between Tarik Skubal and George Kirby. You can take a deeper dive into that matchup by examining the pitching metrics chart below.
Tigers vs Mariners odds have the Mariners as -140 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 6 (-115o /-105u) as oddsmakers expect runs to come at a premium given the Skubal-Kirby matchup.
Take a look at my full betting preview below, which includes Tigers vs Mariners prediction and pick for Wednesday.
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 6 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -205 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 6 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +168 |
Tigers-Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal, George Kirby
| LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 4.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.1 |
| 2.57/2.81 | ERA /xERA | 3.04/3.24 |
| 2.64/2.83 | FIP / xFIP | 2.71/3.42 |
| 0.95 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 25.1% | K-BB% | 21.3% |
| 46.4% | GB% | 40.3% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
John Feltman's Tigers vs Mariners Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Ace on the Mound
The Tigers have the luxury of having their ace on the mound on Wednesday, but they have a tall task at hand against Kirby. Kirby has done well in limited action against these Tigers hitters, as they're batting .143 against him.
Skubal was cruising along in his last start, but in the sixth inning, he was tagged for a couple of runs. The floodgates opened shortly afterward, but the Cy Young candidate is still having a terrific season.
Skubal's impressive numbers don't tell the full story, as his strikeout, walk and chase rate are all above the 80th percentile amongst MLB pitchers. Against a Mariners offense that's struggled for most of the year, he's set up to have success on Wednesday.
With a total set so low, every run is going to come at a premium. The best chance for the Tigers to win tonight is to force Kirby out of the game early and attack the Seattle bullpen.
The Tigers are batting .229 with a 27% K-rate against right-handed pitchers, so it's tough to rely on their offense in the early portion of the ball game.
I expect both of these starters to duel early, as long as Skubal holds up his end of the bargain.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Kirby Should Have No Issues
Kirby's numbers aren't as impressive as Skubal's, but the right-hander has earned the right to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Kirby's outrageously low walk rate ranks in the 99th percentile amongst all MLB pitchers.
Kirby should have no issues dismantling the Tigers' lineup. The obvious issue for tonight's game is the Mariners' opponent on the mound, as he's not going to make life easy for the offense.
Justin Turner left the game yesterday due to a HBP, and it's unclear if he's going to play tonight. He's a key piece that the Mariners acquired at the deadline, especially when facing a tough southpaw like Skubal.
Turner being absent will hurt the offense, and I have a hard time envisioning a lot of runs being scored as long as Skubal is on the mound.
The Tigers' bullpen is a bottom-five unit, so the Mariners need to keep the game close if they want to prevail late with a victory.
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love targeting the F5 innings in most MLB action, and I'm going to do it again tonight.
Kirby and Skubal are more than capable of tossing 0s for multiple innings, so we have a classic F5 under spot here.
The overall total at 6.5 is a bit too low for my liking, especially given how poor the Tigers' bullpen has been as of late. It's tough to gauge which offense will have the upper hand, so I'll happily trust the two starting pitchers on the mound to get the ticket to the window.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-105)
Moneyline
BET Seattle Mariners
I definitely lean towards backing the Mariners tonight, but not enough for this to be my best bet. It comes down to which bullpen I trust the most late in the game, and that's hands down the Mariners' unit.
Skubal and Kirby will hold steady for most of the game, but it's nice having the home-team insurance.
Run Line (Spread)
PASS
With a low total, I considered backing the Tigers and laying the juice. But as I've alluded to throughout the article, I don't have any faith in their bullpen to hold a lead, nor protect one. The Mariners' offense is dreadful, but if Turner plays, they've been a much better unit post-All-Star break. There's too many uncertainties to like either spread here.
Over/Under
PASS
I'm sure the sharps who took under six in Cubs and Twins yesterday can't wait to take the over for this matchup. I sound like a broken record at this point, but the Detroit bullpen is a disaster, and there's no reason to believe it can keep the game low scoring, even if it's only for a couple of innings.
A 3-3 score late torches the under, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mariners' offense wake up late.
After watching the theatrics at Wrigley Field last night, no thank you.
