The Cubs and Rays have been starved for wins lately, and after splitting the first two games of this mid-week series in Tampa, the two will meet in what could be a very important rubber match on Thursday.
Justin Steele no longer finds himself pitching like Chicago's ace thanks to the season that Shota Imanaga has had, but he's certainly looked like one over his last two outings, as he begins to find his groove amidst an injury-riddled season.
Taj Bradley, on the other hand, is searching for some consistency after a topsy-turvy start to his season, which comes on the heels of a challenging rookie year.
Will one of these guys rise to the occasion for their respective teams? Will either have any success here?
Let's break this game down and find ourselves a little Cubs vs. Rays same-game parlay to bet today.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Cubs vs Rays MLB Parlay: Thursday SGP
- Cubs ML (-116)
- Justin Steele 6+ Strikeouts (-130)
- Cody Bellinger 2+ Total Bases (+125)
Parlay Odds: +430 (FanDuel)
Cubs
ML (-116)
I'll start off here by taking the Cubs to win.
We'll dive a bit deeper into Steele in a moment, but he's surely the pitcher to trust in this one. He's pitched to a 1.50 ERA this month and owns a solid 3.17 Expected ERA and .228 Expected Batting Average through eight starts.
So, while the strikeout numbers have come down a bit overall, he should be in a good spot to cobble together another quality outing here against Tampa.
The biggest difference in this one could be the Cubs' defense. It's slowly shown some improvement over the last month or so, and in June, Chicago ranked seventh in baseball at three Outs Above Average.
Tampa Bay is hitting just .189 over the last week with a measly .112 Isolated Power, and that's no surprise considering it's hit a ton of balls on the ground in attempt to string together base knocks.
With the way Steele has pitched — coupled with the strides Chicago has made on defense — this should be a very good matchup for the visitors.
That's not to mention that Bradley has continued to struggle on contact, with a devious .526 xSLG, which has been somewhat masked by his high strikeout rate.
Chicago has cut down on swings and misses by over one percentage point to bring its strikeout rate close to 22% in the past week. And in that time, it's posted a respectable 105 wRC+.
I think the Cubs own the better offense and they have the better arm going.
Justin Steele
6+ Strikeouts (-130)
I mentioned above that it's been a down year overall in the strikeout department for Steele, but after posting just a 20% whiff rate in May, he's brought that number up to 26.1% in two June starts, netting him 12 punchouts across 12 innings.
I do think this is a matchup in which he can have some success, so I expect him to go at least six frames here.
And with the way the Rays are hitting, that should be more than enough to get him to six punchies.
Tampa Bay's strikeout rate is a ghastly 28.6% in the past week, and against left-handers this year, it stands at 25.4%. It continues to have one of the highest swinging strike rates around, too, at nearly 12%.
With Steele missing more bats of late and still displaying excellent control — with just one outlier performance in the walk department — he should keep pounding the zone to get ahead in counts and finish the Rays off with his slider, which has seen a huge jump in whiff rate this month.
Cody Bellinger
2+ Total Bases (+125)
With Bradley's profile as a guy who's allowed a ton of expected extra-base hits and barrels, I'm thinking about power bats in this Cubs lineup.
There isn't a better guy to back at the moment than Cody Bellinger.
The left-handed slugger owns a .444 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this year and has destroyed fastballs, hitting .268 and slugging .465 against the pitch with solid expected numbers to back those figures up.
He's also red-hot at the moment, with two hits in each of his last four games, which does worry me a bit given the run will have to end at some point.
I'm confident as even with just one hit here, he should find extra bases given his approach and the weaknesses of the pitcher he'll face.
