The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians on September 17, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSDET.
The Guardians will look to extend their winning streak to six games Wednesday and earn a series win versus a Tigers team sporting a record of 46-30 at home this season. Though Cleveland is in the midst of a 10-1 tear, it is priced as a fairly heavy underdog in Wednesday's matchup, as Gavin Williams (3.16 ERA, 152 and 2/3 IP) will face off against Jack Flaherty (4.69 ERA, 151 and 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Tigers Prediction
- Guardians vs Tigers picks: Under 8 Total Runs -105 (Bet365, Play to -115)
My Guardians vs Tigers best bet is Under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Tigers Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -115o / -105u | -150 |
Guardians vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 8-13 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.16 / 4.39 | ERA /xERA | 4.69 / 4.11 |
| 4.61 / 4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 3.88 / 3.68 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 11.1% | K-BB% | 19.2% |
| 44.6% | GB% | 36.8% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 94 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Guardians vs Tigers Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Offense Struggles Against Right-Handers
Just as we saw from the Tigers in 2024, the Guardians have given themselves a small chance to pull off a miraculous playoff berth with their recent 10-1 run, though FanGraphs still only offers Cleveland a 14.1% chance of sneaking into the postseason.
A large part of the Guardians' recent tear comes down to their soft schedule of late, but Wednesday's matchup versus Flaherty and the Tigers offers a tougher spot, while Thursday's matchup versus Tarik Skubal is as tough as it gets.
Cleveland has been in better form offensively of late, as you would expect given its record, but still projects as one of the worst offenses in baseball from a broader perspective. It ranks dead last in expected batting average, expected slug rate, and expected weighted on-base average this season. Since the All-Star break, the Guardians hold a wRC+ of 89 and hold the sixth-worst BB/K ratio in baseball.
They have been even worse versus righties in the same span, with a 27th-ranked wRC+ of 86 and a weighted on-base average of .292.
While the Guardians' offensive play remains a concern, it should have a fighter's chance of stealing this matchup with Gavin Williams on the mound. Williams has been one of the AL's better starters since the All-Star break, pitching to an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 1.06 across 59 and 1/3 innings of work.
Williams also holds an xFIP of 3.79 throughout his last ten starts, as well as strong pitch metrics including a Stuff+ rating of 105 and a Pitching+ rating of 107.
The Guardians bullpen has been in good form recently, as over the last 30 days it has pitched to an ERA of 3.30 and holds the second best strikeout minus walk-rate in MLB.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Tough Task in Gavin Williams
After authoring a strong bounce-back campaign in 2024, Flaherty's 2025 season has been quite a disappointment, as the veteran righty holds an ERA of 4.69 across 151 and 2/3 innings of work. While his level of play is certainly down relative to last season, he has underperformed all of his expected statistics this season by a considerable margin.
Flaherty holds an xERA of 4.10 this season and an xFIP of 3.68. In his last ten starts he's still struggled to an ERA of 4.76, but his 3.57 xFIP and 24.5% strikeout percentage suggest better results could be on the horizon. In those ten appearances he's stranded just 64.4% of base-runners, compared to a career average of 76.1%.
Detroit's bullpen has offered relatively mediocre results over the last month, pitching to a 16th-ranked ERA of 4.14 and a 15th-ranked xFIP.
Offensively the Tigers have continued to trend in the wrong direction following their red-hot start to the season, as they hold a wRC+ of 98 since the All-Star break and have struck out at the seventh-highest rate in MLB. They have been even less productive versus right-handed pitching in that span, ranking 25th with a wRC+ of 89.
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Considering the current form of the Guardians and Williams' recent level of dominance, the Guardians look intriguing at +125, given that Detroit has also not been in overly strong form offensively.
While the Guardians would be my lean in this matchup, there looks to be more value in betting the under. Flaherty's underlying numbers suggest he should find positive regression in the near future, and he gets a great matchup versus the Guardians soft lineup in this matchup.
At -115 or better I see value backing this game to feature under 8 runs.
Pick: Under 8 Total Runs -105 (Bet365, Play to -115)
Moneyline
As noted, my lean would be with the Guardians stealing a win with Williams on the mound in what will hopefully be a tight-knit pitchers duel.
Run Line (Spread)
There does not appear to be value betting either side to cover the run-line.
Over/Under
As outlined, my favorite bet from this matchup is backing the game to feature less than eight runs at -105.
Guardians vs Tigers Betting Trends
