The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians on May 21, 2026. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Guardians are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Tigers are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction
- Guardians vs Tigers Pick: Under 7.5
My Guardians vs Tigers best bet is on the Under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Tigers Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +176 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -215 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -116 |
- Guardians vs Tigers moneyline: Guardians -102, Tigers -116
- Guardians vs Tigers over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Guardians vs Tigers spread: Guardians -1.5 (+176), Tigers +1.5 (-215)
Guardians vs Tigers Probable Pitchers
| Joey Cantillo (LHP, CLE) | Stat | Casey Mize (RHP, DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 3.40 / 3.90 | ERA / xERA | 2.43 / 2.98 |
| 4.37 / 4.39 | FIP / xFIP | 2.68 / 3.66 |
| 10.0% | K-BB% | 19.0% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 37.9% |
| .284 | BABIP | .277 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 90 | Location+ | 104 |
Guardians vs Tigers MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system bets the Under in daytime games where solid visiting arms suppress scoring, and the home offense is steady but not explosive.
Day games often play more slowly due to the sun, shadows, and shorter rest.
Visitor SP filters (ERA between 3 and 4.76, WHIP between 1.07 and 1.39) identify efficient pitchers capable of limiting damage without elite notoriety.
Home team hit rate between 7.81 and 8.24 ensures average offensive output — enough to avoid Over volatility but not dominate.
Combined with lower totals and calm game tempos, this approach isolates a pocket where public expectations may overshoot actual output.
Guardians vs Tigers Pick, Betting Analysis
I project around 7.2 runs for this matchup, so I see a tad bit of value on the Under 7.5.
Casey Mize’s season looks very legit. He’s running a career-high 19% K-BB, even if his stuff is a little lackluster (89 Stuff+, 4.54 botERA). He might be due for a tad bit of regression, but no more than a run or so (2.43 ERA, 3.66 xFIP).
He’s also pitched much better at home (17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, .213 wOBA allowed) than on the road (19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, .325 wOBA allowed) this season.
Joey Cantillo is fine (3.40 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 10% K-BB). He is a lefty, so that might help neutralize all the Southpaws in Detroit’s lineup (I count five) — although he's shown reverse splits in his career.
However, I really like Cleveland’s bullpen and defense, which should give Cantillo plenty of support.
Of greater importance, the weather in Detroit should be brutal for hitting. We’re expecting double-digit breezes blowing in from left field with temperatures in the high-50s at first pitch. Based on that weather report, BallParkPal projects a -13% run-scoring factor behind a -39% home-run factor for this game.
Pick: Under 7.5
