The Baltimore Orioles host the Cleveland Guardians on April 15, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Orioles will look to get things moving in the right direction when they begin a three-game series versus the Guardians Tuesday evening. Veteran righty Charlie Morton will face off against lefty Logan Allen in the series opener, and the Orioles are priced as fairly significant favorites at -150.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Orioles Prediction
- Guardians vs Orioles picks: Over 8.5 Total Runs -125 (Play to -130)
My Guardians vs Orioles best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Orioles Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8.5 -115o / -100u | +128 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8.5 -115o / -100u | -152 |
- Guardians vs Orioles Moneyline: Guardians +128, Orioles -152
- Guardians vs Orioles Total: 8.5 (-115o / -110u)
- Guardians vs Orioles Run Line: Guardians +1.5 (-166), Orioles -1.5 (+138)
Guardians vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Allen (CLE) | Stat | RHP Charlie Morton (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 0-3 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.60/5.41 | ERA /xERA | 8.78/6.19 |
| 5.43/5.58 | FIP / xFIP | 5.43/4.03 |
| 1.80 | WHIP | 1.88 |
| 0.71 | K-BB% | 5.40 |
| 51.6 | GB% | 37.5 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 92 | Location+ | 90 |
Nick Martin’s Guardians vs Orioles Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: Bullpen Strength vs. Rotation Struggles
Allen bounced back from an ugly 2025 debut with a dominant outing in his last start versus the Chicago White Sox, allowing zero earned runs and four hits across four innings of work.
Allen pitched to an ERA of 5.73 across 97 1/3 innings of work in his sophomore campaign last season, with an xERA of 5.90 and an xFIP of 4.75.
The consensus among the major projection systems is that he'll hold an ERA close to 4.60 this season and hold fairly standard results for a starter at the backend of the rotation.
In his first two outings of the season, Allen holds an xERA of 5.41 and a K-BB% of -4.4. Command was a significant concern for Allen last season, and that's been the case so far in 2025, as he's walked seven batters in 11 innings of work.
He holds a Stuff+ rating of 94 and a Pitching+ rating of 85 in his initial two outings.
Cleveland's bullpen was a massive strength in 2024, as it led baseball with an ERA of 2.57 and an xFIP of 3.67. The Guardians did work their relief staff quite heavily last season, which could cause some concerns this year if the starting staff is unable to eat more innings.
The Guardians are off to a fairly modest start offensively, with a wRC+ of 99 and a wOBA of .302. They hold a wRC+ of 98 versus righties so far after finishing with a wRC+ of 95 versus right-handed pitching last season.
In a small sample, Kyle Manzardo has done a fairly good job of replicating the production of former first baseman Josh Naylor, as Manzardo has slugged .522 with an OPS of .861 in the first 15 games of the season.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Power Bats Look to Bounce Back
Relative to expectations, the Orioles are off to a fairly modest start offensively, with a wRC+ of 103 and a slug-rate of .383.
A matchup versus a well-below-average lefty in Allen could help the Orioles find better production, especially since they were one of the best teams in the league against lefties last season.
In 2024, the Orioles held a fifth-best wRC+ of 115 versus lefties. Anthony Santander posted a wRC+ of 115 in 2024 versus lefties, and his loss will hurt, but there are still plenty of high-quality bats left in the lineup. That includes several highly-touted young talents, such as Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday, who should be more productive at the plate this season.
At age 41, it appears as though Morton's legendary career is finally winding down. He holds an xERA of 6.19 and an FIP of 5.43 this season. He's been hard-hit 61.5% of the time in his first two starts, and his pitch metrics suggest his stuff is less effective now, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 96.
Guardians vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Orioles' offense should be one of the better units in baseball, as it's hard to see why they'll take considerable steps backward after their excellent 2024 campaign.
Allen looks likely to be well below average with a severe lack of velocity, and the Orioles should be able to hit him quite effectively in this matchup.
While I'm far less sold on the Guardians' offense being overly strong this season, Morton has had an awful start to the season, and it seems very possible that the 41-year-old isn't going to be an effective starter this season.
With these two starters facing off in a slightly below-average ballpark in terms of run creation, I'm surprised this total is set at 8.5 and not 9, and I see value in betting the game to go over 8.5 runs at anything better than -130.
Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-125)
Moneyline
The prices on sides in this matchup look relatively fair. If I had to bet a side, it would be the Orioles at -150, but laying that kind of number on Morton right now feels pretty dicey.
Run Line (Spread)
There's no bet I see value in making in terms of the run line.
Over/Under
Backing the game to feature over 8.5 total runs is my favorite bet from this matchup
