The Philadelphia Phillies (25-24) host the Cincinnati Reds (25-24) on May 20, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC 10.
The Phillies are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+140) on the run line. The Reds are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-170) on the run line. The total is set at 10 runs (-110 / -110)
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Phillies Predictions, Pick
- Reds vs Phillies Pick: Over 10 (-105 or Better)
My Reds vs Phillies best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Phillies Odds, Spread, Line
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 10 -114o / -106u | +122 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 10 -114o / -106u | -144 |
- Reds vs Phillies moneyline: Reds +122, Phillies -144
- Reds vs Phillies over/under: 10 (-114o / -106u)
- Reds vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+140), Reds +1.5 (-170)
Reds vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Andrew Abbott (LHP, CIN) | Stat | Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.21 / 4.78 | ERA / xERA | 5.91 / 4.83 |
| 4.61 / 4.80 | FIP / xFIP | 4.84 / 3.86 |
| 5.3% | K-BB% | 13.9% |
| 43.6% | GB% | 41.2% |
| .298 | BABIP | .344 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 99 | Location+ | 97 |
Reds vs Phillies MLB Over/Under Projection
Our own Sean Zerillo projects value on the Over in this matchup.
While the consensus line sits around 10, he projects the number closer to 10.4. And, as logged in the Action App, he recommends betting the Over 10 at -105 or better.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Additionally, our own Matt Trollo bet the Over as well, citing the positive hitting weather (+11%, per BallParkPal), two sloppy defenses, Andrew Abbott's poor earned run estimators (all over 4.5), and Cincinnati's recent bullpen implosion.
How To Bet My Reds vs Phillies Pick, Best Bet
While all of Trollo's points stand, I also want to add that Aaron Nola has looked like a shell of himself this season.
He may be due for some positive regression (5.91 ERA, 3.86 xFIP), given his decent fastball velocity and 23% strikeout rate (alongside a tough .344 BABIP). However, his batted-ball profile is a mess, and he can't locate the ball (career-low 97 in Location+).
I love this early-afternoon Over.
Pick: Over 10 (-105 or Better)
