Two of the more active teams at the Trade Deadline, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, face each other for their first series in their new form.
The Cardinals-Cubs series opener provided some fireworks, as St. Louis struck in the sixth inning to steal the lead in front of the Wrigley faithful. Then, Mike Tauchman served a base knock into left field to finish off the late three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth.
The Cardinals biggest deadline acquisition, Erick Fedde takes the hill for the first time as a Cardinal, facing off against Javier Assad of the Cubs. Find my the latest Friday MLB odds in my betting preview of this NL Central clash, which includes my Cardinals vs Cubs prediction.
Cubs vs Cardinals Odds & Pick
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -112o / -108u | -115 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -112o / -108u | -105 |
Cubs vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Javier Assad (CHC) | Stat | RHP Erick Fedde (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 3.23 / 4.56 | ERA / xERA | 3.11 / 3.79 |
| 4.59 / 4.53 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77 / 3.99 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 14.7% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 44.7% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 99 | Location+ | 105 |
Sean Paul’s Cubs vs Cardinals Predictions & Pick
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Firstly, let me give well-deserved credit to the Cardinals front office. The Cardinals hauled in Fedde to solidify their pitching rotation with a reliable innings-eater at a fraction of what it cost the Orioles to acquire Trevor Rodgers and the Astros to acquire Yusei Kikuchi.
Fedde pitched to a 3.11 ERA and 3.77 FIP in 21 starts with 121 2/3 innings — just shy of six innings per outing. Fedde specializes in soft contact — ranking in the 69th percentile in average exit velocity and 72nd in hard-hit rate. He also ranks in the 67th percentile in BB%, which helps him get deeper into outings.
The Cardinals offense finally found its stride in July, ranking eighth in MLB with a 108 wRC+.
Notably, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado seemingly turned a corner after a rough few months. Goldschmidt posted a 109 wRC+ in July and homered off Shota Imanaga in the series opener. Arenado finished July with a productive 111 wRC+ — one of Arenado's better months this year.
Arenado's power is largely gone. He's popped just 11 homers this year, but if his wRC+ is around 105-110, the Cardinals will take it on their quest for a postseason berth.
The Cardinals love hitting versus right-handers, ranking 11th in MLB with a 106 wRC+ this year. Brendan Donovan (120 wRC+) and Alec Burleson (147 wRC+) form a dynamic left-handed duo atop the Cardinals lineup with a dangerous combination of bat-to-ball ability and plate patience. Both strike out 14% of the time or less and boast OBP's around .340. That's the key in this matchup against the Cubs soft-tossing righty, Javier Assad.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Regression tends to hit hard if a pitcher's peripherals are over a run higher than the ERA. That's the case for Assad, who owns a 3.23 ERA with a 4.56 xERA, 4.59 FIP, and 4.53 xFIP. Something has to give since Assad's expected stats are each in the 4.5 range, while his ERA sits in the low 3's. Things could come crashing down for Assad shortly, which should even out the ERA and expected numbers.
Nothing in Assad's profile jumps off the page. Here are some of the less-than-desirable baseball savant numbers for the Cubs 27-year-old.
- 36th percentile xBA
- 9th percentile chase rate
- 7th percentile whiff rate
- 23rd percentile walk rate
- 31st percentile barrel rate
- 47th percentile hard hit rate
I'm looking to avoid Assad as much as possible moving forward. He went fewer than four innings in two of his past three starts. I'll give some grace, given he came fresh off the injured list in the first start. Then, he allowed three runs in six innings against the Royals on Sunday. That's not awful, but the Cardinals should be in position to win if Assad allows three runs in six innings.
The Cubs offense posted a 102 wRC+ in July, ranking 21st in MLB. While that number isn't ideal, it's not accounting for Cody Bellinger, who missed a majority of the month, and the addition of All-Star third baseman, Isaac Paredes via a deadline day deal from the Rays.
We're looking at a more potent offense than the Cubs had even a week ago. Five Cubs batters (40 AB minimum) posted a wRC+ better than 120 in July. They have the ideal combo of contact with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner — and power with Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Cody Bellinger, and Paredes.
Can the Cubs overcome a potential rough start from Assad?
Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Analysis
I don't see it happening. I have zero faith in Assad, as I alluded to early, even if the Cubs offense becomes league-average in the final 50+ games of the 2024 season. Assad could dig the Cubs too deep of a hole to dig out of — especially if Fedde brings his dominant form to the NL Central, like he did in the AL Central on the other side of Chicago.
Fedde is the much better pitcher in this Cubs/Cardinals day game matchup, and the Cardinals destroy right-handed pitching. St Louis has an ideal path to victory at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon. Plus, the Cardinals bullpen a current form is in better shape than the Cubs, who off-loaded their top-relief arm in Mark Leiter Jr.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-112) |
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Moneyline
Six of the ten games in the 2024 iteration of Cardinals/Cubs have ended in the Cardinals favor. They have the Cubs number so far this year, and I see it continuing today.
The Cardinals have advantages in all three major areas — starting pitcher, relief arms and bats. It's a trifecta for the Cards in this matchup. It makes the ML feel like a home run play for me.
Run Line (Spread)
The Cardinals have advantages in all three major areas — starting pitcher, relief arms and bats. It's a trifecta for the Cards in this matchup. It makes the ML feel like a home run play for me.
I'm looking to avoid the Cubs in general, so taking the run line in the Cubs favor doesn't make a ton of sense. If you're reading and don't feel comfortable laying runs with the Cardinals, then take the ML. However, if I'm speaking your language and laying runs isn't a problem, then let me explain why the Cardinals -1.5 makes sense.
Typically, if the money line is around -115 to -125, the run line doesn't appeal to me much.
In this instance, I'd still grab the Cardinals ML to about -145, which lends some value to the -1.5 run line at +150. The run line would be closer to +110 than +150 if the Cardinals were -145 ML favorites. It's hard to pass up on the value I see with how I see this game going.
Over/Under
It doesn't seem like the wind will play a huge role one way or the other on Friday, as it often does in most day games in Chicago.
The "trend" (small sample) of Cardinals/Cubs unders at Wrigley Field finally ended on Thursday, as Ryan Helsley allowed 3 runs for the backdoor over cover in the bottom of the ninth. In bouts between these two teams, the over has hit seven out of 10 times. The rivals have shared some heavy weight blows this year, and it should continue on Friday afternoon.
Take the over.
