The Philadelphia Phillies (92-64) host the Chicago Cubs (80-76) on Monday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch for this series opener is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. You can find my Cubs vs Phillies prediction, pick and best bet for September 23 below.
The Phillies enter Monday with their eye on clinching the NL East as their magic number stands at just one. They're set to hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola against an eliminated Cubs squad that will be implementing a bullpen game, starting with right-hander Nate Pearson.
Cubs vs Phillies Predictions
- Cubs vs Phillies pick: Phillies run line (-1.5)
My Cubs vs Phillies best bet is on Philadelphia's run line, where I see value at +120. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+170 | 8 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-205 | 8 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +100 |
- Cubs-Phillies Moneyline: Cubs +170 | Phillies -205
- Cubs-Phillies Over/Under: 8 total runs (-105o / -115u)
- Cubs-Phillies Spread: Cubs +1.5 (-120) | Phillies -1.5 (+100)
Cubs-Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nate Pearson (CHC) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 12-8 |
| 0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.8 |
| 4.71 / 4.47 | ERA /xERA | 3.54 / 3.76 |
| 4.48 / 3.77 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04 / 3.53 |
| 1.33 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 18.8% | K-BB% | 17.5% |
| 34.8% | GB% | 43.8% |
| 128 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 99 | Location+ | 105 |
Cubs at Phillies Prediction Preview
Cubs Betting Preview: Fade This Pitching Staff
Nate Pearson is expected to work the first inning or two as an opener while Hayden Wesneski is expected to lead the bulk of the relief in a scheduled bullpen day.
With that said, you should look to fade this pitching staff on Monday evening.
Pearson possesses a 4.71 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through 57 appearances on the mound this season. His underlying metrics are equally poor, as the right-hander ranks in the bottom-third of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Wesneski also ranks in the bottom half of the league in both xERA and barrel rate.
We also don't know how much burn either guy is going to get, but we do know that this Chicago bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in xFIP.
That just leaves the hitting, which is another disadvantage for the Cubs in this game. They trail Philadelphia in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Furthermore, this current Cubs lineup possesses a fade-worthy .178 BA, .287 SLG and .226 wOBA through 137 combined career plate appearances against Aaron Nola.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Can Nola Lead Phils to NL East Crown?
Nola has put together another strong season. He's 12-8 through 31 starts with a 3.54 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
His analytics are equally strong, as the right-hander ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Following Nola is a bullpen that ranks in the top 10 in both FIP and xFIP.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support, considering that Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Cubs at Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis: Run Line
There's not a single advantage that Chicago possesses in this matchup.
Nola outranks both Pearson and Wesneski in ERA, xERA, walk rate and barrel rate. Philadelphia's bullpen also outranks the Cubs' in both FIP and xFIP.
And, as mentioned above, the clear lineup advantage also goes to the Phillies.
Finally, Philadelphia is playing on its home diamond, a venue where it's winning at a 67% clip this season. On the other hand, Chicago has lost 51% of its road games.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+120 | Play to +115)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. While I like Philadelphia to win this game, I would rather take a chance on its run line rather than lay the 78 cents on its moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm betting the Phillies -1.5 in this game.
Over/Under
I'm also going to pass on the over/under. There are too many contradicting variables for my liking in this market, such as Philadelphia's explosive lineup and Nola's excellent pitching.
Cubs vs Phillies Betting Trends
- 88% of the bets and 97% of the money is on the Phillies moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 96% of the money is on the Phillies to cover the run line (-1.5).
- 89% of the bets and 93% of the money is on the over (8)
Cubs Betting Trends
- Cubs are 2-3 in their last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone under in three of Cubs' last five games.
Phillies Betting Trends
- The total has gone over in three of Phillies' last five games.
