The Cleveland Guardians (4-3) host the Chicago Cubs (3-3) on April 3, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Cubs are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by +150 on the run line (-1.5). The Guardians are +100 on the moneyline and -182 on the run line (+1.5). The total is set at 7.5 runs (-112 / -108).
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Guardians Predictions, Pick
- Cubs vs Guardians Pick: Under 2.5 Home Runs (-170, DraftKings)
My Cubs vs Guardians best bet is on Under 2.5 home runs for the game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Guardians Odds, Spread, Line
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -118 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +100 |
- Cubs vs Guardians spread: Cubs -1.5 (+150), Guardians +1.5 (-182)
- Cubs vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-112 / -108)
- Cubs vs Guardians moneyline: Cubs -118, Guardians +100
Cubs vs Guardians Pitchers
| Cade Horton (RHP) | Stat | Joey Cantillo (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 2.84 / 3.59 | ERA / xERA | 4.91 / 5.82 |
| 4.41 / 3.06 | FIP / xFIP | 2.88 / 4.48 |
| 0.79 | WHIP | 1.91 |
| 13.6% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 58.8% | GB% | 30.0% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 127 | Location+ | 75 |
Cubs vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Trends, Key Players
Cade Horton gets the start for the Cubs, and the guy has been stellar in his young Major League career. The 24-year-old now sports a 2.68 career ERA after delivering 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball in his first start.
The bad news for Horton fans is that he doesn't appear to actually be nearly this good. His career FIP stands at 4.41. If you look at xFIP, which adjusts a bit for a pitcher's ability to control home runs rather than just assuming mostly the same rate for everybody, the picture gets brighter at 3.06.
Horton does not project as a strikeout-heavy pitcher. His career 12.4% swinging-strike rate is only a touch above the league average. His fastball has good velocity above 95 MPH on average, but hitters don't have a lot of trouble putting it in play.
What gets the job done for Horton are his secondary pitches. He has a really nice changeup and curveball combination behind the four-seamer that are really tough on hitters when he gets ahead.
Offensively, the Cubs face a unique left-handed pitcher in Joey Cantillo.
Cantillo has one of the worst fastballs in the Major Leagues. That pitch gets a whiff on just 6% of its offerings and has allowed a near .400 xwOBA dating back to last year.
The reason Cantillo hangs around is that he has one of the best changeups in the game. If you can't sit on the fastball from Cantillo, you don't have much success.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends, Key Players
Cantillo is a hard guy to predict.
If he's locating his fastballs and has the feel for the changeup, he's not a guy who gives up very much. There will probably be at least a couple of walks every time out, but he stifles loud contact.
And this isn't a Cubs lineup, especially against lefties, built for loud contact. They're a veteran team with strong plate discipline and batting average potential, but there's not a ton of power.
The Guardians' offense is similar. They're slugging just .322 out of the gate with their very unimpressive roster.
I think we're in for a low-scoring affair in this game.
How To Make Cubs vs Guardians Picks, Betting Analysis
I have a daily projection model over at my website, MLB Data Warehouse. One prop pick pops in this game — Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120).
I saw that line on DraftKings for a moment, but it's changed now to a 4.5 line with -154 on the over and +120 on the under. I think Cantillo will finish right around 4-5 strikeouts, so I don't want to explore that. But if you can find under 5.5 with -130 or better, that bet grades out extremely well.
I like both of these pitchers' ability to generate soft contact. Changeups are hard to hit out of the ballyard, and we'll see a lot of good changeups being thrown to lower-power hitters today.
My projection model agrees, giving this game fewer than two total homers.
Both pitchers are well below average in giving up homers
2025-2026 HR/9 Rates (League Average = 1.18):
- Cade Horton: 0.80
- Joey Cantillo: 0.91
We're eating some juice on it, but I think under 2.5 home runs in the game is an easy win. I expected the line to be at 1.5.
The pick correlates pretty well with the under 7.5 (-105), so I could get behind that as well. But I'm less confident in that, because both guys do give up a fair amount of contact, and these matchups would seem to boost that even more.
Pick: Under 2.5 Total Home Runs (-170, DraftKings)
