Cardinals vs Cubs Friday Odds & Moneyline Prediction
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+102 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -205 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-122 | 7.5 -102o / -118u | -1.5 +170 |
Jordan Wicks makes his return to the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation with Ben Brown on the Injured List. Wicks, albeit not spectacular, has been a reliable option at the back-end of the rotation when called upon.
The same could be said about Kyle Gibson, who will throw for the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday afternoon. Gibson is a well-known ground-ball pitcher, but this matchup may not be as favorable since the Cubs can keep the ball in the air. However, with the wind blowing in, Gibson could benefit.
Both bullpens are comparable, but the Cards have a few more bats who can produce, which should help during Friday’s game.
St. Louis Cardinals
Gibson owns a 3.76 ERA against an xERA over 5.00. Negative regression will head his way at some point since he's in the 27th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. However, a ground-ball rate in the 82nd percentile will play in an environment with the wind blowing in.
Chicago may keep the ball in the air often, but with this wind, Gibson can be the beneficiary of good fortune, as he already has been this season.
The Cards have a 107 wRC+, 5.6% walk rate, and 20.2% strikeout rate against righties in the past month. They have a complete lineup when facing a northpaw with eight active batters eclipsing a .320 xwOBA.
Their relief staff owns a collective sub-4.00 xFIP with a walk rate that's under 7.5%. Even if they don't strike many hitters out, they can keep hitters off of the bases. They also have four arms under the 4.00 mark, but since Gibson can throw five-plus innings, he can help the relievers out.
Chicago Cubs
Wicks has a 4.44 ERA and xERA a touch above 4.00. He strikes out more hitters than average, but like Gibson, struggles with command at times. His Hard-Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity rank in the middle of the pack, so he is just fine.
However, the looming issue with him is how many pitches and innings he can throw since he's only thrown more than five innings once this year. Considering this, Gibson might have the edge with relatively even bullpens.
The Cubs have a 101 wRC+ off of righties in the last month, and own a 9.2% walk rate and strikeout rate of 25.1%. While more disciplined, they will whiff more than the Cards. The difference is the Cubs only have five bats above a .325 with those same parameters in place.
The top portion of the lineup does the heavy lifting, so if Gibson is keeping the ball on the ground, the Cubs may have trouble notching runs early. Chicago could score with getting runners on by walking, but otherwise, Gibson can win this duel.
The Cubs have a 3.84 xFIP in relief in the last month, as well with a better strikeout rate and way worse walk rate. They still have four active arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so this is about even with Gibson. Their biggest issue will be Wicks being pulled before finishing five innings, putting a strain on those coming into the game late.
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
With an even line, the pitcher with more experience who can benefit from the elements at Wrigley Field is the right one to back. In addition, the Cards have done better against lefties than the Cubs have done against righties lately. Take St. Louis to steal the first game of this notable rivalry from -108 to -130.
