Brewers vs. Mets Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -130 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-190 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +110 |
The New York Mets lost as -145 favorites on Wednesday, and have now lost more games as a betting favorite than any other team in this 2023 season.
They will be a large favorite Thursday, too, at -192 in a matchup pitting Max Scherzer (3.95 ERA in 70 2/3 IP) against Adrian Houser (4.02 ERA in 40 1/3 IP).
The Mets try to salvage a series split on Thursday at Citi Field. See how I break down Brewers vs. Mets in my preview below, which includes two betting picks.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers may own a strong record at 42-38 playing in a horrific NL Central, but their offensive play has been downright awful lately.
Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have hit to a wRC+ of 79, which is the fourth-worst mark in baseball. Their 26.5% K-rate over that time is also fourth worst. Over the last 14 days, things have gotten worse, with a wRC+ of 75 and a K-rate of 26.9%.
The Brewers have been the 25th-most potent team in the league versus right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 88.
Adrian Houser owns a 3.94 ERA across 16 innings in June. His expected rates have remained steady over that time, and his xERA sits at 3.89 this season. His xFIP through 40 1/3 innings sits at 4.62.
Houser's stuff does not rate overly well, as his Stuff+ rating is 86. Neither of his fastballs rate particularly well, and he has thrown them 71% of the time this season, which is the highest mark in baseball among pitchers who have pitched over 30 innings.
New York Mets
In a year where something always seems to be off, New York's defensive play has been horrible of late, and the bullpen has been disastrous in a stretch where the offensive play should be enough to win games. Over the last 14 days, the Mets own a 101 wRC+ with a woba of .313.
A matchup versus Houser should be favorable to their offensive splits. They have hit to a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching this season, and are a top-third team versus fastballs.
The vast majority of Scherzer's starts this season have either involved him settling in and being quite dominant, or getting hammered and departing early with less in between than an average starter.
Over his last eight starts, Scherzer owns an ERA of 3.19 with a WHIP of 0.95, so the actual results have still involved much more good than bad. His underlying rates suggest those marks are only slightly better than expected.
Scherzer still owns above-average marks in terms of Stuff+ (101) and Location+ (102), this season. Over the last two outings he has managed a strikeout rate of 30%, which is highly encouraging after a decline early on this season.
Brewers vs. Mets Betting Pick
Fading the Mets has been one of the most profitable strategies in baseball this season, as they have regularly underperformed expectations. With that said, there is no argument which states that trend has to continue moving forward, and I actually like the Mets in this spot.
Their offense has still been drastically better form of late than the Brewers. Scherzer has still been dominant more often than not, and deserves to be rated well beyond Houser.
The games leading up to this point may make New York hard to stomach as a big favorite in this matchup, but the Mets actually deserve the price tag and I would play them down to +100 to cover the run line.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+108 | Play Down to +100) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Backing New York at -165 to cover -0.5 in the first 7 innings is another option if you prefer to leave the bullpen out of bet.
