Braves vs. Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-125 | 7 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +135 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 7 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -160 |
Atlanta and Philadelphia's divisional rivalry has only been heightened by their recent playoff matchups against one another in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS. In consecutive seasons, the Phillies ended the Braves' season by beating them in four games in the playoffs, and Spencer Strider has been at the center of the Philadelphia ire. The Atlanta ace gave up six runs to the Phillies in the 2022 NLDS, and then gave up three solo homers in a 3-1 loss in the 2023 elimination game.
This matchup was originally scheduled for Thursday but was pushed to Friday because of inclement weather. Strider ended last season with four out of six starts against the Phillies, and all four of them were quality starts. Despite the Phillies familiarity, they haven't had a ton of success against him. He's the best pitcher in MLB based on preseason betting markets for Cy Young and strikeouts, and Strider is set to face off against a fellow top-five pitcher in Zack Wheeler.
Despite their teams' frequent matchups against one another, it's the first time Wheeler and Strider will face off against one another on the mound. Given the quality of the pitching and the weather conditions in Philadelphia on Friday afternoon, the total is a bit high.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta scored 947 runs last season, which was 41 more than any other offense in MLB. The high velocity of the Phillies' top bullpen arms and Wheeler himself were the formula for the Phillies holding Atlanta's offense down in that playoff series, and Philadelphia will have most of its top bullpen arms deployable behind Wheeler to start the season.
The Braves aren't exactly the same as last year. Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic has replaced Eddie Rosario in left field offensively, and Atlanta beefed up its rotation with Chris Sale and bullpen depth with more left-handers to combat Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the heart of the Philadelphia order. Eight of the nine primary starters for Atlanta are back, including MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., home run leader Matt Olson and multiple other 30+ HR hitters.
You'd expect the Braves to regress offensively a little from their historic output last year — Acuña and Olson especially don't seem likely to repeat career years — but there's more room for the Atlanta offense to grow through the improvements of third-year centerfielder Michael Harris. Harris struggled in the first half of last season but then played at an elite level in the second half and excelled by tapping into more power this spring.
Strider nearly won the Cy Young last year despite underperforming his underlying metrics. Strider had the best strikeout rate and K-BB% of all qualified starters last year. He easily finished the season with the most strikeouts and while he did have some issues with homers, he's deployed a curveball this spring to help further deepen his arsenal.
Strider was a two-pitch pitcher with an elite fastball and wipeout slider. He had a 3.09 xERA last year and elite Stuff+ metrics, but Strider relied a bit too much on establishing middle middle with the fastball. As good as the pitch was, he gave up homers on it when the velocity wasn't quite at peak. Now with the extra pitch, Strider had 35 strikeouts in 22.2 spring innings.
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Philadelphia Phillies
Like Atlanta, Philadelphia is returning largely the exact same lineup as last season. The primary changes: Johan Rojas is starting in centerfield, Brandon Marsh will move to left and Harper is now at first. All three are significant defensive upgrades over the situations from last season. Rojas and Marsh are elite defensively at their respective positions and a big upgrade over the league's worst defender in left last year in Schwarber.
Philadelphia's defensive improvements are the most underrated key to the Phillies' run prevention this season. The Phillies are sacrificing offense at the No. 9 spot in the lineup by starting the unproven bat in Rojas and banking on his gold glove level defense.
The Phillies will hope their offense is carried by a better Trea Turner season and a fully healthy Harper, but their leadoff hitter Schwarber is a notorious slow starter as a table-setter offensively.
Wheeler may not have the same level of elite stuff as Strider — hence why the Braves are a road favorite — but he's still projected for a 3.40 ERA and pitched to a 3.18 xERA and 3.15 FIP last season. His velocity was down a bit in spring as part of his ramp up, but Wheeler ranks top five in baseball in Location+, a metric for command.
Braves vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The move from Thursday to Friday afternoon has a major impact on the weather conditions. The total was sitting at 7.5 across the market prior to postponement Thursday, and there was no market adjustment to Friday's increased wind conditions.
Friday's wind is expected to be 15-18 mph at first pitch, blowing in from left field. Outside of Wrigley Field, there's no ballpark more impacted by wind than the open back end of Citizens Bank Park. Even with the expanded scoreboard last year, the park is quite impacted by wind.
Atlanta improved its bullpen, and while the ball may appear to be flying more on Opening Day, the wind will cut down on these two offenses that love to hit home runs. The total should be at 7, and I'm happy putting my money on these two top-five starters Friday.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
