Braves vs. Nationals Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 8.5 -108 / -112 | -1.5 +115 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 -108 / -112 | +1.5 -138 |
The Washington Nationals ended their latest losing streak yesterday when they took the second game of the series against the Atlanta Braves. On Saturday afternoon, the Nats send their electric southpaw Mackenzie Gore to the bump to take on Charlie Morton.
The Nationals are slight +120 underdogs, and the over/under at 8.5 at most shops as of Saturday morning. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored in the matchup.
Let's take a deeper look at my Braves vs. Nationals pick and prediction for Saturday, June 8.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves offense was silenced last night, and it does not get much easier on Saturday afternoon. Without Ronald Acuna, they'll have to rely on the rest of the team to maintain offensive consistency.
Charlie Morton is a staple in the Braves rotation and is having another decent season. He enters the matchup with a 3.88 ERA and 65 Ks in 62 IP.
The problem is, that Morton is prone to getting struck at times despite the consistency in the strikeout department. His numbers against the Nats are far from impressive, as the current bats are hitting .276 over 87 at-bats.
If that was not a big enough concern, the Braves hitters have yet to figure out Mackenzie Gore. They are hitting a measly .197 against him with Ks over 66 at-bats.
I can not back the Braves due to the factors above, since there is no value on them as slight favorites. There are too many question marks for the particular matchup to have any confidence.
Washington Nationals
The scrappy Nats needed a win on Friday to end their losing streak, and now they have a great matchup to look forward to. Gore continues to improve as a starter, and he has great success against the Braves hitters in his career.
Taking a look at Gore, he ranks in the Top-50th percentile amongst all MLB pitchers in the following categories:
-Whiff Rate%
-Strikeout%
-Opposing Exit Velocity (87.1 MPH avg)
-Fastball Velocity
-Extension
There is a lot to like about the young left-hander, and once he cleans up a few areas of his game he'll get his ERA lowered below 3.00 in no time. For today's game, he is primed for a bounce-back start after a rough outing against the Mets.
The Nats offense has been successful against Morton, and I do not expect anything less here. The offense has struggled a bit lately, but it is a good matchup to break out.
Braves vs. Nationals
Betting Pick & Prediction
I truly think the Nats should be favored, and I especially like the price we are getting with them in the F5 innings market. Gore is coming off of a bad start, so I think the market is overreacting to that quite a bit.
The Braves have a top-3 bullpen in baseball, so I'd much rather take my chances in the early going. I am focused on attacking the matchup of Gore and Morton, where I think the Nats have the edge.
We are getting a great price at plus money on the Nats money line in the F5, and I'll happily roll with it.
Pick: Nationals ML – First Five Innings (+106)
