The Detroit Tigers host the Boston Red Sox on May 13, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
After pummeling the Red Sox 14-2 in Monday's series opener, the Tigers now hold the best run differential in baseball, as well as a 2.5-game lead in the AL Central.
They're slight underdogs in Tuesday's matchup, however, as Brayan Bello (2.01 ERA, 22 1/3 IP) will take on Tyler Holton (3.12 ERA, 17 1/3 IP), who's presumably opening for Keider Montero.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Red Sox vs Tigers Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 · Play to -110)
My Tigers vs. Red Sox best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Tigers Odds, Spread, Lines
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -108 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
Red Sox vs Tigers Projected Pitchers
| RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) | Stat | LHP Tyler Holton (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 2-2 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 2.01/5.56 | ERA /xERA | 3.12/4.49 |
| 5.57/4.72 | FIP / xFIP | 5.01/3.40 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 1.1 | K-BB% | 16.7 |
| 56.1 | GB% | 40.8 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 96 | Location+ | 99 |
Red Sox vs Tigers MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
After he pitched to a 3.47 ERA in the second half of the 2024 season, it seemed logical to infer that Bello could break out with a strong campaign this season.
And as I noted ahead of his first start of the season, Bello dealt with a tough situation off of the field last year, as his wife could not get a visa, and therefore his family remained in the Dominican Republic.
In Bello's first inning of the season, he allowed a home run to Jorge Polanco before loading the bases with three straight walks. It felt as though things were about to unravel, but he managed an inning-ending double play out of Rowdy Tellez, and had a steady outing from there on out.
Bello's first start was a solid encapsulation of his season in a nutshell. It hasn't exactly been pretty, and he's certainly not looked overly dominant, but he's found success where it matters most, as he enters this matchup with an ERA of just 2.02.
It's hard to imagine Bello will suppress runs so effectively the rest of the way considering his overall process though, as he holds a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, a walk rate of 12.8% and a hard-hit rate 38.8% of the time.
He owns an xERA of 5.56, but he's managed to strand runners at an absurd rate of 97.1%.
Bello's pitch metrics are down considerably compared to last season, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 92 and a Pitching+ rating of 89. His chase and whiff rates are near the bottom of the league, supporting the idea that his stuff hasn't been overly good.
With a good mix of proven batters and young talents ready to offer more production, Boston was expected to be a better-than-average side offensively this season, and it hasn't disappointed recently.
The Red Sox offense has been quite effective over the last month of play, as they hold an eighth-ranked wRC+ of 111 over the last 30 days.
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview
Holton will make his 16th appearance of the season in this matchup, as the Tigers will hope he can handle two tough lefties at the top of the Red Sox order in Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers.
Holton holds a 4.46 xERA and 3.40 xFIP across 17 1/3 innings of work this season.
Montero is expected to come in after Holton to handle the bulk of the innings in this matchup. Montero posted a 4.76 ERA and 5.24 xERA in 2024, and appears to have pitched at a comparable level in his first 21 2/3 innings of work this season. He holds a 5.46 xERA and 5.02 xFIP.
The pitch metrics are quite low on Montero, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a Pitching+ rating of 87.
The Tigers have averaged 5.43 runs per game this season, which ranks fourth in baseball, despite playing their home games at a well below average ballpark in terms of run production.
They hold the sixth-best wRC+ in baseball and own a wOBA of .333. They've hit right-handed pitching well this season, as evidenced by a wRC+ of 112.
Red Sox vs Tigers Pick, Best Bets
Bello looks to be about as pure of a fade candidate as you can find in baseball, as he's hidden an entirely unconvincing overall process with a 97.1% strand rate.
The underlying results suggest he'll be a below-average starter moving forward, and this could be a good spot to target Bello coming down to earth as he takes on a red-hot Tigers offense.
The Red Sox offense has also been in strong form of late and appears to be well situated for a strong offensive outing, as neither Montero nor Holton look overly convincing.
Both teams appear poised for strong offensive outputs in this matchup, and there appears to be value backing the game to feature over 8.5 total runs as a result.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 · Play to -110)
Red Sox vs Tigers Betting Trends to Know
