The race for the postseason is heating up, and two teams vying for position in the American League, the Red Sox and Orioles, will kick off a big weekend series in Baltimore on Thursday night, with first pitch scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET on MLB.TV. So, let's get to my Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction for August 15.
Nick Pivetta will get the ball for Boston, attempting to continue what's been an impressive season underneath the surface, opposite the consistent Zach Eflin who will be making his fourth start since coming over from Tampa Bay.
Who will get the better of this pitcher's duel in the DMV? Let's break down the latest MLB odds.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, MLB Pick
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -170 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +140 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nick Pivetta (BOS) | Stat | RHP Zach Eflin (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-7 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 4.44/3.55 | ERA /xERA | 3.83/3.30 |
| 4.04/3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.60/3.81 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 24% | K-BB% | 16.5% |
| 30.7% | GB% | 42.9% |
| 135 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 106 | Location+ | 108 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Preview
Red Sox Betting Prediction: Boston Trying to Stay Afloat
Pivetta is an elite strikeout arm, sitting in the top 9% of all pitchers in retiring 29.9% of the batters he's seen on a third strike, and like most other punchout artists he's been incredibly vulnerable to long fly balls. The righty has now allowed 19 on the season and his .420 Expected Slugging — firmly worse than the league average — which proves the issues are certainly no fluke.
Around that, though, the right-hander has done just about everything you could ask. He's sporting a career-best 5.9% walk rate and has endured one of the worst defenses I've ever seen. Fenway Park typically isn't the easiest park for fly-ball arms to pitch in either, so the marriage of those two factors has led him to so-so stats on the surface.
Pivetta will receive a bit of a park upgrade in Baltimore, which over the past three seasons has sat in the bottom third of the league in Park Factor to home runs, and he'll also draw an offense which should be a bit kinder to him than the season-long numbers would lead you to believe — something we'll cover in a moment.
As for this Red Sox lineup, they've stayed afloat amidst an injury to Tyler O'Neill with a 117 wRC+ in the past two weeks. They're still striking out in over a quarter of their plate appearances, but they've hit for more power than they have over the course of the year, with an uptick in walks to boot.
Orioles Betting Prediction: Baltimore's Slight Dip
Baltimore now finds itself behind the Yankees in the AL East, and while it's hard to criticize their offense, it would seem a slight down-turn in production is the main culprit.
The Orioles have watched their strikeout rate rise by around two points over the past couple of weeks with a 20-point drop in Isolated Power. Their home run-to-fly ball ratio stands at just 12.4% over that time, ranking 16th in baseball, which is a long way off their 14.1% mark for the year which still stands second-best in baseball.
The home side here has now scored just eight runs over the last three games, dropping two to Washington and Tampa Bay, and will be hoping that Eflin can match what Pivetta promises to bring to the table.
Eflin has enjoyed his time in Baltimore, posting a 2.33 ERA through three starts with 17 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings. The Orioles have his curveball usage up more, which has helped his whiff and strikeout rates continue trending up, and while his ground ball rate has dropped his Expected Batting Average has now sat under .200 in the past two starts.
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis: Boston Undervalued
The Orioles' slight struggles on offense might be what delivers Pivetta a third straight outing of quality. With less to fear in the power department on account of a significant drop in home run-to-fly ball ratio and an influx of strikeouts, the right-hander's greatest strength should be on full display while his biggest weaknesses looks a bit less damning.
On the flip side, Boston has remained a force to be reckoned with at the dish and sits eighth in run value to curveballs which should give it a give it a bit of boost here in a matchup I love.
The Red Sox remain one of the best teams in baseball versus ground-ball pitchers, and while Eflin hasn't been all that extreme in his launch angle aversion this season, he has still favored ground balls over the course of his long career which might not work out all that well in this one.
Even on the road, I'd make this one much closer to a coin flip and love what I'm seeing in the trends for Boston.
Moneyline
The Red Sox opened up close to +130 here, and while you can still find some stale lines out there the price has steadily drifted down towards +120 early in the betting window. With that said, we've tracked both sharp action and big money coming in on Baltimore to take this one.
Run Line (Spread)
While the Orioles have hit the run line in four of their last five, the Red Sox have done so just one time in their last seven contests. With that said, Boston has gone a stunning 24-13 to the run line on the road — covering in 64.9% of these games — while Baltimore is just 26-28 to the run line as home favorites.
Over/Under
The total remains at the opening line of 8.5 runs, though the price continues to creep up and should soon push the number to nine. There's been some sharp action on the over, and the vast majority of tickets and money are headed that way as well.
The Over has hit in 60.7% of Baltimore's games this season, but in just 56.4% of its home games. Boston's gone 34-21-3 (61.8%) to the Over on the road this season and has now seen it cash in 13 of its last 16 overall.
