Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+136 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -155 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-162 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -1.5 +130 |
The Philadelphia Phillies completely dismantled the Toronto Blue Jays last night, and they will quickly turn around to play them once again on Wednesday afternoon.
The Phillies offense hung a crooked number against Jays starter Jose Berrios as they took an 8-0 lead into the fifth inning and went on to win 10-1.
The Blue Jays turn to Chris Bassitt to right the ship, and he'll be opposed by Aaron Nola. Nola has looked like his old self in the last couple of starts, so there is no reason to think he won't continue that form.
Let's take a look at the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds and make a prediction for Wednesday afternoon's game.
Toronto Blue Jays
It's been a strange season for Chris Bassitt thus far. The righty has struggled to begin the year due to his lack of command.
He is walking nearly five batters per nine innings thus far, but the metrics suggest he has had bad luck because he has a 4.34 xFIP with an ERA over 5.00.
Opposing hitters currently have a .356 BABIP against him, which is completely unsustainable — even against the worst pitchers in baseball. Although he is not generating too many ground balls, he is still striking out roughly 8.5 batters per nine innings.
I have never been the biggest Bassitt fan, but he has decent career numbers against the Phillies. It is a bit scary to trust him in a hitter's park against a red-hot team, but I think he is due for better performances moving forward.
Offensively, the Jays draw a nice matchup with Nola. He is a solid pitcher in a groove lately, but he has not fared well against Toronto's hitters in his career.
Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dalton Varsho are hitting above .300 against him with limited at-bats. It is a small sample size, but we've seen Nola get hit hard in the past.
The Phils are on fire, and there is always a risk of fading them, but the Jays have caught my eye due to the above factors.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola is off to a 4-1 start, but his days of being an ace appear to be over. Although he is still a strong starting pitcher, Nola no longer is the elite strikeout threat he once was.
He enters the start averaging a little over 8Ks/9, but he also has 3BB/9. There is no reason to overreact, but he is extremely prone to getting roughed up a bit in any start.
His career numbers against the Jays are also concerning, and I expect their offense to bounce back after a beatdown last night. The Jays are hitting .275 as a team against him lifetime.
I mentioned the Phils offense being red hot, and that is an understatement. I knew their cold spell at the beginning of April was a fluke, as they suddenly found themselves at the top of the NL East.
They are among the top five in both runs and batting average, so there are rarely any breaks when facing their lineup. Bassit is due for positive regression moving forward, so I am weary of backing the Phils after such a big offensive day on Tuesday.
Blue Jays vs Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I like the Jays to get off the skid and take care of business early in the ballgame. I believe they'll be aggressive early on against Nola, and they are bound to wake up after last night.
Both pitchers are prone to getting beat up a bit, but I would rather be on Bassitt's side because he is bound to pitch better moving forward. Nola is pitching well, but this is not the best matchup for him given his past history against the Blue Jays, and I think he begins to regress starting on Wednesday afternoon.
I like the price we are getting for the Jays in the first five innings as they cash with a win or tie heading into the top of the sixth.
