The Baltimore Orioles (77-56) and Los Angeles Dodgers (78-54) conclude their three-game interleague series on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on Mid Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) and and SportsNet LA.
The Orioles and Dodgers are two of the top teams in MLB and the series is tied at one game apiece. Baltimore beat old friend, Jack Flaherty, in the series opener; L.A. then bounced back behind Walker Buehler and scored six runs on Corbin Burnes to earn a victory on Wednesday night.
The Orioles are embroiled in a battle with the Yankees for the top of the AL East Standings, while the NL West leading Dodgers must stave off advances from both the Diamondbacks and Padres, who are only a few games back entering Thursday.
With only 30 or so games remaining, this all important rubber game becomes a must-watch between two World Series contenders. Cade Povic takes the mound for the Orioles and the Dodgers turn to Bobby Miller, both of whom have struggled this season.
Let's get into my Orioles vs Dodgers prediction and pick for Thursday, August 29.
Orioles vs Dodgers Predictions
- Orioles vs Dodgers pick: Over 9 (-102)
My Orioles-Dodgers pick is on the total to go Over 9, where I see value at a line of -120. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Dodgers Odds
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -160 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-150 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +135 |
- Orioles-Dodgers moneyline: Orioles +125 | Dodgers -150
- Orioles-Dodgers over/under: 8.5 total runs (-115o / -105u)
- Orioles-Dodgers run line: Orioles +1.5 (-160) | Dodgers -1.5 (+135)
Probable Starters for Orioles at Dodgers
| LHP Cade Povich (BAL) | Stat | RHP Bobby Miller (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | W-L | 1-3 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 6.10 / 4.29 | ERA /xERA | 7.49 / 6.49 |
| 5.90 / 5.93 | FIP / xFIP | 6.35 / 4.43 |
| 1.62 | WHIP | 1.74 |
| 4.0% | K-BB% | 10.1% |
| 35.4% | GB% | 44.7% |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 96 | Location+ | 94 |
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
Orioles Betting Preview: Does Povich Have the Stuff?
Cade Povich's rookie campaign is not going exactly as expected. In his 10 starts the 24 year old is 1-6 and is striking out just 4% more batters than he is walking. His four seam fastball velocity is sitting at 92.2 MPH and by Pitch Level Value (PLV), ranks in just the 26th percentile. He throws a cutter, curve and a sweeper, all of which are much more competitive, but the fastball simply isn't strong enough to set the peripherals up for success.
Povich was sent down after walking 10 combined batters across two starts in late July, but has returned to the rotation to help the Orioles deal with injuries to their pitching staff. He pitched well against Boston in his return to the bigs, but then, last Friday, he struggled with a strong Astros lineup, allowing five runs on eight hits and two walks.
The Orioles offense is struggling a bit, they're 25th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and this is largely due to being 28th in BABIP in the same span. They're making good contact but just not getting the expected hits out of them.
Facing a right handed pitcher in Bobby Miller today should help their offense get back on track, the Orioles are the third best team in the majors this season against righties by wRC+. Baltimore has also scored well on the road this season, totals are 37-23-4 O/U when the Orioles are away from home.
Dodgers Betting Preview: No Freeman, No Problem
The Dodgers have quite the luxury with their lineup construction. It is not often you can have one of your most important hitters go ice cold for a week and barely feel the impact. That's exactly what's happening with Freddie Freeman right now. The Dodgers first baseman sat both Tuesday and Wednesday's contests after going 3-for-23 in the six games since fracturing his right middle finger.
This hasn't really bothered the Dodgers, they're 5-1 in those games, which illustrates the incredible depth this team has since the return of Mookie Betts and Max Muncy a couple weeks ago. It checks out, adding multiple 100 RBI hitters back into your lineup that features Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez can usually boost production.
The Dodgers get to face off against a southpaw today, and that should only help them continue their hot run. They rank third in wRC+ against lefties. There's a good chance Freeman sits again, but LA will turn to Bobby Miller to keep the formidable Orioles at bay. Will Miller be up to the task, is the question.
Bobby Miller has been a confounding pitcher to analyze this season. His Stuff+ sits at 114, one of the higher marks in all of baseball. He has elite extension and 98th percentile fastball velocity, but the location has been off and the HR/FB% when batters make contact is up at 28%, which is 3rd percentile. The biggest issue appears to be the command, placing the pitch within the zone at just 52.3% and getting called strikes on just 14% of fastballs. He's done well to pair it with his sinker but the changeup has been hammered all season.
Miller's biggest issue right now is that he's not throwing the slider, so batters are sitting there waiting for the heater and getting it because he has nothing else to throw in big spots. The righty will likely give up some runs, but will look to earn a win behind the Dodgers strong home record. They're 43-23 on the money line when playing at Dodger Stadium as well as 72-42 when made the favorite.
Perri's Orioles-Dodgers Prediction: Over/Under Betting Analysis
The market has moved towards the Orioles overnight, with this game opening at a price of -165 for the Dodgers and moving to the current -148 consensus line. The total has also come down, opening with a 9.5 (+100) mark, which now sits a half run lower at over/under 9 (-105).
The run line indicates the market expectation of a closely contested game and a highly expected one run win for the Dodgers in this all important rubber game between two World Series hopefuls. You could argue that this could be a preview of the Fall Classic in just a couple of months.
Moneyline
This game is about as open ended as any these teams have played this year. These premiere teams are both filled with talent from the top to the bottom of their batting orders and have some of the biggest names in the game taking swings. The Orioles are a consistent run scoring team with dangerous hitters from top to bottom and the Dodgers have one of the most dangerous cores in majors. That said, when you believe a game is even slightly up for grabs, the value is normally on the underdog. There is likely a perception that Povich won't be able to compete, which was ultimately responsible for a steep opener, but the market is clearly seeing value on the Orioles and the price has become more competitive because this game really could go to either team tonight with both pitchers being question marks.
Run Line (Spread)
The spread has long been known as a way you play the Dodgers. Everyone always seems to say that you shouldn't lay the price with the Dodgers on the ML but instead should go with the RL to maximize profit. That might have held true last year, but this season LA is 65-65 ATS and just 59-55 ATS when made the favorite. They are no longer the consistent spread team that you can rely on to reduce juice and improve ROI by laying the 1.5 runs. If anything, look to the Orioles for the run line. Their strong offense has lead to them being 19-10 ATS when made the underdog this season and 37-27 ATS on the road. There's a good chance they either lose by just one or win.
Over/Under
The Over is where the value lies today, even with the market moving the number down a bit. Neither Povich nor Miller is ready for a battle against the lineups that will walk up to the plate against them tonight. It could truly get ugly and get ugly quickly. Neither pitcher is throwing a competitive mix of pitches and both are experiencing some hard hits. With multiple All Stars littered throughout each lineup, the runs should be flowing. I like the full game total and the first five innings total in this game a good deal.
Orioles vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- 90% of the bets and 96% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 69% of the bets and 65% of the money are on the over.
- 81% of the bets and 65% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Orioles Trends
- Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Orioles are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Orioles are 37-27 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Orioles' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Orioles' 69 last games at home
Dodgers Trends
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Dodgers are 30-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Dodgers' 66 last games at home
Orioles-Dodgers Weather Forecast for Thursday Night
