The New York Mets (46-33) host the Atlanta Braves (36-41) on Tuesday, June 24, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
After suffering a 3-2 loss in the series opener, the Mets will hope for a better result Tuesday when they face off against Spencer Strider for the second time in five days. Strider threw six dominant innings versus the Braves last Thursday, allowing just one earned run and racking up eight strikeouts.
Frankie Montas will make his Mets debut after suffering a high-grade lat strain in February. The veteran righty pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 57 1/3 innings last season with the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers.
Find my Braves vs Mets prediction and prop pick for Tuesday night's NL East clash below.
Braves vs Mets Prediction, Prop Pick
- Braves vs Mets pick: Spencer Strider to Record a Win +140 (Bet365, Play to +130)
My Braves vs Mets best bet is Spencer Strider to Record a Win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 9 100o / -120u | -140 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 100o / -120u | +118 |
Braves vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Spencer Strider (ATL) | Stat | RHP Frankie Montas (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | Season Debut |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | – |
| 3.89/3.98 | ERA /xERA | – |
| 3.78/3.65 | FIP / xFIP | – |
| 1.14 | WHIP | – |
| 20.9% | K-BB% | – |
| 34.1% | GB% | – |
| 99 | Stuff+ | – |
| 93 | Location+ | – |
Braves vs Mets Betting Preview
Braves Preview: Strider's Return to Form
Strider missed almost the entirety of the 2024 campaign after receiving surgery to repair a torn UCL, before suffering another injury to his hamstring on April 16th. He was not offering the same electric stuff earlier in this season. However, his last two outings suggest he is still capable of pitching at the elite level he offered throughout the first three seasons of his big league career.
Strider has pitched to a 0.75 ERA and 0.93 xFIP in his last two starts combined. He's struck out 15.75 batters per nine in that span, and holds a 21.75% swinging-strike rate. His pitch metrics from those outings were considerably better than earlier in the year, as he held a Stuff+ rating of 104 and a Pitching+ rating of 105.
With Strider's velocity back up closer to where it was earlier in his career, it seems reasonable to put some stock into a small sample of dominance that suggests he is primed to author elite results once again.
The Braves enter Tuesday's matchup six games back of the final Wild Card berth and hold a 29.6% chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs. They are 7-3 over their last ten games and are primed to keep cutting into the deficit with Strider and Ronald Acuna Jr., but will need a spectacular record the rest of the way with the NL Wildcard race looking quite competitive.
In the time since Acuna Jr. returned on May 23, the Braves have still offered below-average results at the plate with a wRC+ of 93 and a .375 slug rate. They have been more effective versus righties in that span with a wRC+ of 97 and an eighth-ranked K/BB ratio.
Atlanta's bullpen was projected to be a strength entering the year and has been in good form recently with a 3.97 ERA and third-best 3.47 xFIP over the last month.
Mets Preview: Bullpen Woes
After dropping the series opener, the Mets now hold a record of 1-9 over the last ten games and have averaged just three runs per game in that span. They hold a wRC+ of 81 in that span, rank 29th in BB/K ratio, and 26th in hard-hit rate.
Over a larger sample of play, they do still look to be offering a strong process at the plate and obviously hold a lineup capable of producing much more effectively. Over the last month, they rank first in wRC+ versus RHP and hold the highest hard-hit rate in MLB.
Montas posted below-average results in 2024, finishing with a 4.71 xERA and 4.26 xFIP. He held a K-BB% of 12.5 and a Stuff+ rating of 102. During his six rehab appearances, he held a 6.72 ERA in 18 2/3 innings of work and a WHIP of 1.71.
The Mets' bullpen has not been overly effective recently, after offering dominant results earlier in the campaign. Mets relievers have pitched to a 4.14 ERA and 20th-ranked 4.15 xFIP over the last month of play.
Braves vs Mets Prediction, Prop Pick Analysis
The Mets' offense could break out of its slump soon, and it's likely not worth putting much stock into their recent slump.
However, they will be fighting an uphill battle in this matchup, with an in-form Strider offering a significant edge over Montas.
Montas was a below-average starter last season, and while his ugly results during his rehab starts may not be overly indicative of anything, they certainly do not suggest he will be much better in 2025.
Strider's elevated velocity and results over the last two games suggest he is ready to dominate once again, and he should have a good chance of receiving some run support early in this matchup.
At +140, there looks to be value in backing Strider to record a win, and I would bet it down to +130.
Pick: Spencer Strider to Record a Win +140 (Bet365, Play to +130)
Moneyline
Backing the Braves to win the game at -150 looks to provide some value, and would be my preferred bet in terms of sides or totals.
Run Line (Spread)
Given that betting on Strider to record a win is my favorite play from this game, backing the Braves would obviously be my preferred option in terms of betting the run line.
Over/Under
The total for this game initially opened at 10 and has since decreased to nine, which appears to be a fair number.
