Astros vs. White Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+106 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -188 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-124 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +155 |
It is becoming harder to believe that Dylan Cease finished as the runner-up in last year's A.L Cy Young vote considering his recent form. Cease has allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts, and owns an ERA of 5.58 over 40 and 1/3 innings in 2023. He will start Saturday for the Chicago White Sox.
Houston will hand the ball to righty Brandon Bielak, who has pitched to a 4.15 ERA in 8 and 2.3 innings. Here's my breakdown of the Astros vs. White matchup and odds, including and pick and prediction.
Houston Astros
For various reasons Houston has taken a meaningful step backwards offensively this season, and their lineup is far from what we are used to seeing.
The addition of former White Sox slugger Jose Abreu has not yet paid any dividends. Abreu is yet to hit a single home run, and has slugged just .259.
Jose Altuve is close to a return and played in his first rehab game last night, but for the time being he will remain out. Michael Brantley's absence has left another big hole in the lineup. News on that front is far less positive, as he was shut down due to shoulder inflammation Friday.
The Astros have hit to a wRC+ of just 89, which is the 22nd worst mark in the league. Their 20th ranked xwoba of .314 indicates that they are not necessarily due for much better.
They also have hit to worse splits versus right-handed pitching. They hold a wRC+ of just 85 and a .292 woba versus righties.
Brandon Bielak has been giving up a ton of hard contact over his first two outings. Bielak owns a 10.77 xERA, and has been hard-hit 38.6% of the time. xERA is less effective in such a small sample however, which is an important note here.
Bielak's velocity is down marginally, but his stuff is still rating close to normal. Most models still project Bielak around an ERA of 4.5 the rest of the way, which seems logical considering preseason expectations.
Chicago White Sox
There are some major concerns with Cease right now, but it is still unlikely that he will be one of the AL's worst starters for a sample much larger than what we have seen. His strikeout rates are down nearly 5%. Batters are absolutely crushing his four seamer and curveball, with xSLG rates of .458 and .498 respectively.
Even still, Cease is in solid percentiles in terms of K %, whiff %, and chase rate. His stuff is rating worse than we saw throughout his dominant 2022 campaign. Even still, it is in the upper third of all starters, which makes the case that the sheer amount of hard contact should regress in time.
The Sox own eye popping lefty/righty splits at the plate. They are a top third offense versus lefties, and one of the worst teams in the league versus right-handed pitching, which is consistent with last season.
The Sox own a wRC+ of only 81 against right-handed pitching with a woba of .290.
Astros vs. White Sox Betting Pick
It has been a concerning start to the season for Cease, but I am still having a hard time buying that he is as bad as he has shown thus far. Houston's offense has been middling, and the conditions in Chicago will be favorable to pitchers tonight.
Houston's implied team total for this game is right around 4.25 on most sports books. That seems a touch high, and you could even consider targeting that by itself if desired.
The game total is more appealing though, because Chicago also seems unlikely to generate much. For a sample including all of last season the Sox have fared drastically worse in splits versus right-handed pitching.
Bielak's 10.77 xERA is a concern, but that comes in a tiny sample. A logical season long projection is an ERA right around 4.50. We can live with that versus this Chicago offense, particularly on a day where balls are less likely to leave Guaranteed Rate Field.
