Astros vs Giants Odds, Picks
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 +102o /-122u | -1.5 +142 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 +102o / -122u | +1.5 -170 |
The San Francisco Giants are building momentum after taking two of three from the Rangers in Texas. Now they'll square up with another team from the Lone Star State when they play host to the Houston Astros in a three-game set in the Bay Area.
Houston has taken four of its last six, but with its offense still in a tough spot and a struggling starter on the hill in Spencer Arrighetti, is it the slightest bit vulnerable here against a San Francisco team that is gaining some much-needed confidence?
Let's break down the best Astros vs Giants pick in our MLB betting preview below.
Houston Astros
Arrighetti won the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in 2023 by tossing 124 2/3 innings across Double-A and Triple-A to the tune of a 4.40 ERA. While those numbers are a bit inflated due to the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League, the team certainly took a liking to his strong strikeout numbers.
It should be no surprise that a pitcher who failed to dominate the minors last year and flashed only slightly above-average strikeout numbers to get him to the big leagues has struggled in his first go of it at the next level. Arrighetti's actually done well to strike out 25.6% of the batters he's faced in 10 big-league outings, but his issues with walks and getting outs on the ground have carried over.
The sum of the parts equate to a middling 4.47 Expected ERA, weighed down by his 12.1% Walk Rate and slightly below-average .255 xBA. He's allowed line drives at nearly 32% to put him well over the league norm by seven points, and without many ground balls, it's not going to be very easy to pitch to contact, even with a reasonable 39.4% Hard-hit Rate.
The good news is that his xBA did move down slightly in May thanks to a slight uptick in ground balls, but walks continue to be a real struggle. He regressed in those areas last week against St. Louis when he lasted only three innings.
Offensively, it's not as if things are as good as they seem for the Astros right now. They just hung 20 runs on the Angels in three games, but if you look at how well this team has hit all season long, the last two weeks have been a disappointment. There's been an injection of power in the last week, but Houston is still struggling to take walks. That's at least led to a lower Strikeout Rate.
San Francisco Giants
Kyle Harrison will toe the slab opposite Arrighetti in this one, and so far he's failed to deliver on his sky-high potential in 20 big-league starts across the last two years. He's struck out fewer batters this year and has experienced a six-point rise in Hard-hit Rate. Across the two campaigns, it's clear that Harrison is trying to learn how to pitch to contact on the fly.
The good news is that his Ground-ball Rate, which is crucial for all young pitchers, continues to improve. It's grown not only across last season and 2024, but it's gotten better with each month he's spent in the major leagues.
He induced grounders at a 65% clip in his most recent outing — a number he's hit only twice in 20 starts but which has now happened twice in his last six. His walks have also begun to come down over the last couple of games after some sporadic issues.
Offensively, the Giants continue to be a team on the rise with a 119 wRC+ over the last week of play to carry them into the top 10 of the league after a promising last month or so. They've walked at an 11.3% clip over this span, most impressively, and have struck out just 19.7% of the time — showing some marked improvements in two key areas they struggled to start the season.
This is still a team that likes to put the ball in the air and hunt power, however, and at their spacious home park, it can be trying at times.
Astros vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm struggling to find a way to trust either of these two pitchers on Monday, even if I do think this Astros offense has had some slightly inflated numbers of late.
Houston ranks ninth in wRC+ to left-handed starters, and while that has been largely due to a great supply of power led on by a league-high 43.1% Fly-ball Rate in that split, a lot of its success over the last week has come in hitting far fewer fly balls and many more line drives.
This should make it tough for Harrison to pitch to contact around his mediocre strikeout numbers. While the Astros aren't walking a whole lot, a ton of swings here should do the trick against Harrison and the high number of expected hits he's surrendered.
On the other side, I am not a big believer in Arrighetti — at least not yet — and in a big ballpark, his inability to pitch to fly balls could really hurt him here. Mix in that he should see slightly depressed strikeout numbers against a disciplined Giants team of late and a continuation of his walk issues with all the free passes San Francisco is drawing, and both starting pitchers will have issues here.
The Astros continue to have one of the better bullpens in baseball, while the Giants have risen to just outside the top 10 in bullpen ERA over the past 30 days. Consequently, I'd rather pick on Arrighetti and Harrison here by betting the over on the total in the first five innings.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 Runs (+100)
