Astros vs Blue Jays Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+105 | 10 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -175 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -125 | 10 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +145 |
The Astros travel up north Monday for the first of an important four-game set against the Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre.
Toronto will hand the ball to Alek Manoah for the opener. Manoah has suffered one of the more notable drop-offs in form in all of baseball this season, pitching to an ERA of 5.46 in 57.2 innings.
Houston will go with Brandon Bielak, who has been a pleasant surprise with a 3.19 ERA in 31 innings.
So, where does the betting value lie in this American League showdown between the Astros and Blue Jays? Let's dive in and find out.
Houston Astros
Houston has snapped out of a slow start to the campaign by going on a 19-6 tear and is now putting some pressure on the Rangers for the division lead.
Improvement on offense has been a key to the Astros' recent success. Over the last 30 days, they own the eighth-best wRC+ at 111 and hold a wOBA of .330.
Bielak's stellar 3.19 ERA throughout the opening 31 innings of the season has come out of the blue, but it seems unlikely such dominance will continue much longer. His xERA is way up at 5.48, and his xFIP comes in at 4.28.
His hard-hit rate has actually risen to 44.8% this season, which is not overly surprising as he owns a horrific Stuff+ rating of 80.
Stranding 90.2% of all base-runners has been a key to Bielak's strong ERA. Even considering a 47% ground-ball rate that's good for inducing double-plays, he should step back on that front, which would lead to an uptick in his ERA.
Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah's drastically worse results have arguably been the single greatest disappointment among Toronto's roster. Even the more optimistic observers expected some kind of drop-off in form from Manoah in 2023, but few saw a 6.44 ERA coming.
Manoah's command is nearly nonexistent at this point, but on top of that, he's even suffering from a dip in velocity.
Last season, Manoah's slider was a key strength, as it worked in unison with the fastball and batters slugged just .324 against it. This season, batters have slugged .589 on his slider.
Manoah has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 53% of the time, which is the lowest mark among all qualified starters. He has walked 15% of batters faced and is consistently working from behind in the count.
Something is clearly off with Manoah's mechanics, and it seems that he and the Blue Jays organization have searched aggressively for answers. To this point, nothing of substance seems to be on the horizon, which makes it hard to see where a turnaround in form will come from.
The Blue Jays have been in strong form offensively over the last month, owning the fourth-best wRC+ mark (116).
Their new-look roster could lead to more balanced lefty-righty splits in time, but for now, the Jays have been considerably better against right-handed pitching with a 114 wRC+ in 2023.
Astros vs Blue Jays Betting Pick
Both of these teams have been in strong offensive form recently, and all of the makings are there for a high-scoring affair. Even a higher total of 9.5 doesn't entirely cover how many runs could be scored, and I believe we have value to bet the over at 9.5 down to -125.
Manoah has been getting crushed all season, and it seems that he'll be a pure fade candidate until we see some notable changes. Houston is starting to look more like the offensive team we've traditionally seen over the last month and will make a tough matchup.
Toronto continues to be an offensive powerhouse that features a potent lineup from top to bottom. It's been one of the best sides in the league against righties for a lengthy sample size and should be able to do some damage against Bielak.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115 · Play to -125) |
