Astros vs Angels Odds
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-185 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 -105 |
| Los Angeles Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+154 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -115 |
At 5-5 over their last 10 games, the Astros aren't making up much ground in a crowded AL Wild Card race. They sit 4 1/2 back in the Wild Card standings, and own a 45.5% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
Houston is a heavy favorite in Saturday's matchup at Angel Stadium, as it will start Hunter Brown (6.18 ERA, 55 1/3 IP) against Tyler Anderson of the Angels (2.37 ERA, 76 IP).
Read below for my Astros vs Angels prediction for Saturday, June 8.
Houston Astros
Brown's ugly 6.18 ERA is a bit of a harsh take on his season. Over two starts on April 11 and April 16 he was charged with 14 earned runs across just 3 and 2/3 innings, which is tanking his overall ERA significantly. He owns an xERA of 4.49, and an xFIP of 3.73 xFIP this season. His 104 Stuff+ rating and 101 Location+ rating are both highly positive indicators.
Over his last six games Brown has pitched to an ERA of 3.62. He's been hard-hit just 33% of the time in that span, and allowed an xBA of .208. His K-rate has climbed to 27% in those outings, while he has suppressed his walk-rate down 8%. Brown's stuff suggests he should be a better than average starter this season, and he has been exactly that for what is becoming a meaningful sample.
The Astros have hit to a wRC+ of 110 against left-handed pitching this season, with a 0.48 BB/K ratio. Tucker owned an .814 OPS against left-handed pitching this season so his absence is meaningful, but they still project to be a better than average offense against lefties.
Los Angeles Angels
Despite the gigantic gap in these two starters ERA's, the Angels are still heavy underdogs at +140, and obviously a major reason why is oddsmakers are fully aware Tyler Anderson is not the pitcher his 2.37 ERA suggests.
Anderson put up a 5.43 ERA and 4.96 xERA last season at age 33, and out of the blue, has been one of the more successful pitchers in the A.L. this season. A huge part of the reason why has been his 88.7% strand-rate, and .212 BABIP allowed.
Anderson has pitched to an xFIP of 5.07, and an xERA of 4.49. His 1.56 K/BB ratio is actually worse than his 2023 mark, while his 94 Stuff+ rating and 99 Location+ rating are only slight improvements compared to last seasons marks. Over the last four outings Anderson has struck out just 13% of batters faced, and allowed an xBA of .225.
Over the last 30 days the Angels rank last in MLB versus right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of only 77. They hold a BB/K of 0.37 over that span, with the lowest hard-hit rate in the league at 26.7%.
Astros vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even without Kyle Tucker in the lineup, the Astros offense is a far superior unit to that of the Angels in the splits relevant to this matchup. The Angels have been the worst offense in the league versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, while the Astros are quite solid against lefties.
Despite their differing results thus far, Brown should be the better of these two starters moving forward. Anderson has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball, and it's hard to argue he is actually this much better than last season.
This sets up as a good spot to fade Anderson, while backing Brown to continue his resurgence in a highly favorable matchup. At -120, there is value backing the Astros to cover the first five inning run line.
Pick: Astros -0.5 (-120) – First Five Innings | bet365, Play to -125
