The Houston Astros' (77-65) have exploded this weekend, putting up 19 runs in two games to comfortably move into position for a series sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks (79-64) on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch for this MLB interleague finale is set for 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Astros will look to finish things off with another commanding performance against red-hot Ryne Nelson of the D-backs. He's been incredibly effective of late, but the numbers beneath the surface could signal a good matchup for a Houston lineup that will enjoy this one even more if it can get to the Arizona bullpen. That may not absolve Justin Verlander of ridicule here, however, considering he's been on a brutal run of form in the last few outings.
The Diamondbacks enter Sunday 6 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (85-57) for first place in the NL West, but in possession of the second NL wild-card spot. The Astros have a commanding 5 1/2 game lead over the Seattle Mariners (72-71) in the AL West.
Will we send the weekend off in style with a primetime slugfest? Let's get into my Sunday Night Baseball preview and Diamondbacks vs Astros predictions and picks.
Editor's Note: Second baseman Ketel Marte and first baseman Christian Walker are not in the Diamondbacks' lineup for Sunday Night Baseball.
Diamondbacks-Astros Prediction
- Diamondbacks-Astros picks: Over 8.5 (-104 | Play to -115)
My Diamondbacks-Astros best bet and prediction is on Over 8.5, where I see value at -104. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Astros Odds
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+120 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -180 |
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-145 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +150 |
- D-backs-Astros Moneyline: Diamondbacks (+120) | Astros (-145)
- D-backs-Astros Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-105o / -115u)
- D-backs-Astros Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Diamondbacks-Astros
| RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI) | Stat | RHP Justin Verlander (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 4.15/4.17 | ERA /xERA | 4.52/3.86 |
| 3.72/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 4.73/5.03 |
| 1.26 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 14.9% | K-BB% | 13% |
| 42.5% | GB% | 27.6% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Diamondbacks-Astros Preview Predictions
D-backs Betting Preview: Snakes Suddenly Have No Bite
It was all good just a week ago. The Diamondbacks were giving the Dodgers a real run for their money in the NL West, and despite dropping two of three at home to the red-hot Mets, they surely felt good about their chances welcoming in L.A. for four.
Well, that series did not go as planned. Arizona's staff crumbled, and its offense began having trouble compensating for all the runs. Though this team did pull two back against the Giants, it has now lost seven of 10 and has moved behind San Diego in the NL West. The Diamondbacks remain just a game and a half clear in the wild-card race, but the Mets and Braves are now threatening to take their spot.
The Snakes haven't had the same bite as it did last month, checking in with a .148 Isolated Power (ISO) in the last week of play around sustained contact hitting and a good 9.7% walk rate. It's begun to strike out at a concerning clip, however, and it's been awfully fortunate to record a .318 BABIP along the way.
As for Ryne Nelson, who will be tasked with being the stopper here, it's anyone's guess what we'll get. Despite the return of Eduardo Rodriguez, Nelson was able to earn himself a spot in the rotation over Jordan Montgomery, who was demoted to the bullpen last month. The righty recorded a 3.18 ERA in August after pitching to a 2.41 figure in July, and he enters this one off the back of a promising 6 2/3-inning stint against the Giants in which he allowed just two earned runs and struck out nine.
The strikeouts have begun to flow through Nelson's arm lately, but he's been a hard man to gauge on account of the six home runs he's allowed in his last six outings. He now owns a .240 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and .352 Expected Slugging (xSLG) since the start of July, so while he's allowed plenty of hits, the home run totals are rather unbecoming with the elite xSLG.
Nelson remains more centered toward line drives and fly balls as well with his 42.5% ground-ball rate still sitting around the league average.
Astros Betting Preview: Justin Verlander Meets Father Time
Justin Verlander is now 41, and in his twilight years has begun to experience some growing pains as he adjusts to his declining fastball velocity. He's always been a fly-ball pitcher, which is very normal for a strikeout artist, but the issue is that he's now struck out under 22% of batters since the start of last year. And to make matters worse, his walk rate has crept toward the league average after a career's worth of expert control.
Verlander's managed to figure out how to induce soft contact in the air, checking in underneath the league average with a 33.2% hard-hit rate, but his xSLG remains at .408. It would seem he's still vulnerable to teams that can hit for power on account of the batted ball profile, but he's now made it through his last four starts with just one home run against him and he does own a good .230 xBA.
The righty comes into this one off the back of two rocky outings against the Phillies and Reds, however, and has now allowed nine runs on 15 hits and five walks over his last 9 2/3 innings.
The Astros have maintained a competent offense over the last two weeks with a .268/.328/.422 slash line, continuing to limit the strikeouts and aim for contact. Their ISO has jumped to .170 in the past week as they've run up the score on Arizona, and that's been a deadly combination as their staff continue to shove.
Houston's bullpen, in particular, owns a shiny 2.08 ERA in the last two weeks to rank third in the league while Arizona's sits 29th with a 7.68 ERA.
Diamondbacks-Astros Prediction and Pick: Over/Under Analysis
The issues with Arizona appear to be tenfold here, and I'm much more concerned with this pitching staff than anything. Nelson's been rolling, but the driving force behind his success appears to be his ability to wiggle out of jams.
Nelson owns an 81% strand rate in the second half of the season, which is nine points higher than his season average, and it would make plenty of sense considering he's had success in limiting slugging but remains an easy man to reach base against with a poor .269 xBA for the season.
This doesn't bode well for his chances against a team that has been able to rack up plenty of hits of late, but I'm also not willing to give Verlander a clear outlook here either.
The Diamondbacks own a .753 OPS against fly-ball pitchers this year to rank fourth in baseball, and with strikeouts being one of their Achilles' heels, I think they'll enjoy this matchup with Verlander — particularly in a friendlier park than the one they call home. He's looked incredibly hittable of late, even if he's limited the damage on the long ball, and Arizona's slight slump could come to a quick end in this one.
I don't think there's enough here for me to trust either pitcher, and making matters even friendlier for offense is the Diamondbacks' awful bullpen. We should see some runs.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Moneyline
The Astros are right at the opening line of -141 here on the moneyline, but they were bet down as heavy as -155 late on Saturday before the market had the chance to correct. We've tracked some sharp action hitting the Diamondbacks to win this one.
Run Line (Spread)
Houston ranks eighth in baseball when it comes to covering the spread as home favorites, doing so in 46.8% of games with 1.4-run margin of victory on average. The Astros have hit the run line in each game of this series and are 8-5 against the spread over their last 11 contests.
Over/Under
The sharp action has hit the under in this game, and as you might suspect with so much public action on the over, the line has been bouncing around between eight and 8.5 runs over the last 24 hours. The line was at 8.5 — where it opened — just hours ago before dipping back down to eight on aggregate.
Diamondbacks-Astros Betting Trends
- 84% of the bets but just 10% of the money are on the Astros moneyline.
- 90% of the bets and 87% of the money are on over 8.5.
- 54% of the bets and 47% of the money are on the Diamondbacks run line.
Diamondbacks Trends
- Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Diamondbacks are 39-34 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Diamondbacks' 70 last games at home
Astros Trends
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Astros are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Astros are 35-37 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Astros' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 30 of Astros' 70 last games at home
Diamondbacks-Astros Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Minute Maid Park |
| Date: | Sunday, September 8, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ESPN |
Diamondbacks-Astros starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, live from Minute Maid Park in Houston. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Diamondbacks-Astros Key Injuries
Diamondbacks Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| C Gabriel Moreno | Left adductor strain (10-day IL) |
| OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Left calf strain (10-day IL) |
Astros Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Luis Garcia | Tommy John surgery (60-day IL; out for season) |
| RHP Kendall Graveman | Right shoulder surgery (60-day IL) |
| RHP Lance McCullers Jr. | Right forearm surgery (60-day IL; out for season) |
| RHP Cristian Javier | Tommy John surgery (60-day IL; out for season) |
Diamondbacks-Astros Weather Forecast for Sunday night
