Angels vs Astros Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+152 | 9.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -128 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-180 | 9.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +106 |
Los Angeles will look to bounce-back from an 11-3 pummelling Saturday in Game 2 of its series against Houston. The Angels have now dropped eight of their last 10 games and own just a 1.5% of claiming a playoff berth per FanGraphs.
They will turn to Tyler Anderson (4.92 ERA, 104 IP) Saturday looking to shut down a Houston lineup that has been on fire since the returns of Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez to the lineup.
The Astros will start J.P. France, who owns a 2.75 ERA across 95 innings.
Los Angeles Angels
Tyler Anderson enters this matchup owning an xERA of 4.78 this season with a K-rate of just 18% and an xBA of .264.
His xFIP sits at 5.40 entering this contest but has been trending closer to 5.20 over the last five outings. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 90 this season with a Location+ rating of 100.
Over the last two outings, Anderson has upped the usage of his changeup to 39%, which is logical seeing as his changeup owns an xSLG rate of .377 compared to his fastball which owns an xSLG of .502 this season.
Opponents own a hard-hit rate of 23% versus his changeup, and he has thrown it 38% of the time with two strikes last season.
Houston Astros
Houston's seasoned lineup has proven capable of making adjustments as well as anybody in baseball the last several seasons, and that strength could be relevant versus Anderson Saturday. The Astros saw Anderson on July 16, and scored just one earned run across three innings despite managing five hits and two walks.
The Astros have hit to positive pitch values versus the changeup, four-seamer, and cutter respectively. Those three pitches essentially compile Anderson's arsenal which should be favorable to the Astros.
More notably, the Astros have been the fourth most potent team in the league versus left-handed pitching this season. They have hit to a wRC+ of 118 across 1224 PA's versus lefties.
Kyle Tucker's .580 SLG-rate and .981 OPS against lefties have been keys to that success. He has also hit to a .639 SLG-rate since the All-Star break and is 5-for-6 against Anderson historically. He has hard-hit 67% of fastballs from left-handed pitching.
He has thrived in at-bats with runners on base this season with an OPS of .968, which has been crucial to the Astros success with the talents consistently getting on in front of him, and leading to a second-best AL RBI total of 84.
Angels vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
The top of Houston's order is a matchup nightmare for Anderson, who has pitched to a lot of contact this season. Altuve, Alvarez, and Tucker all make for enticing targets to do some damage in this matchup.
Tucker stands out as my preferred choice given that his price is 10 cents better than Altuve or Alvarez, and that he could be the hitter most likely to see some pitches in the zone. His splits versus left-handed pitching are stellar, and he has been in tremendous form since the All-Star break.
My favorite bet from this matchup is Tucker to record over 1.5 bases, and anything better than +100 is a play for me.
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