Twins vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 5, 2023

Twins at Guardians

11:10 pm • Apple TV+

Minnesota Twins

58-68

2 - 0

Cleveland Guardians

64-62

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P. Battenfield			5.19	0-5
B.Ober			3.43	8-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 58-68	-1.5+132	o8.5-122	-122
Guardians 64-62	+1.5-162	u8.5+105	+100

Friday 11:10 p.m.

May 05, 2023

Progressive FieldCleveland

MIN +105 (Live)

1.05u

CLE +105

1.1u

Over 8.5-115

MIN -126

0.95u

Available at FanDuel. This number has moved overnight, but I'm still showing value at -126. My model has the Twins at 59.5% to win, up from 55.8% implied at -126. Bailey Ober isn't a big name, but he has proven to be capable with a 3.95 SIERA across 33 career starts. Peyton Battenfield on the other side is a low-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher, which can be a rough combination. I agree with the model in that the Twins are values here.

Under 8.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -116

CLE +115

0.5u

Bet to +108

Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Friday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
May 5, 2023 UTC

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The Twins are 84-3 (.966) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season -- 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .954.

Max Fried allowed an OBP of just .168 (369 PA's) with two-strikes in 2022 -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .238 -- 99th Percentile.

19 of Max Fried's breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 -- 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan -- 93rd Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 36-28 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Guardians' 62 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	64-62	28-34	36-28	27-28	37-32
Twins	63-63	32-31	31-32	34-40	27-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	56-65-5	31-29-2	25-36-3	29-25-1	26-39-4
Twins	53-67-6	27-33-3	26-34-3	33-38-3	19-28-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	64-62	31-31	33-31	34-21	30-39
Twins	58-68	33-30	25-38	38-36	19-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 3rd	@NYY	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 7.5	NYY -120
May 2nd	@NYY	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7	NYY +132
May 1st	@NYY	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	CLE +108
Apr 30th	@BOS	L 1-7	+1.5 L	U 9	BOS +105
Apr 29th	@BOS	L 7-8	+1.5 W	O 9	BOS +100

Ben Lively
SP
Lively is out with elbow
Out
John Means
SP
Means is out with elbow
Out

Alan Roden
LF
Roden is out with thumb
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RB.Ober, P	91	7	6
RJ.Lopez, P	10	1	1
RJ.Duran, P	18	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Kepler, RF	1-4	1	1	2
2C.Correa, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Polanco, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
4B.Buxton, DH	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Gallo, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Gallo, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6D.Solano, 1B	0-2	0	0	0
6M.Taylor, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6M.Taylor, CF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Gordon, CF	0-3	0	0	0
7N.Gordon, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.Miranda, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8W.Castro, PR	0-0	0	0	0
8W.Castro, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9C.Vazquez, C	1-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP. Battenfield, P	91	7	7	2
RE.De Los Santos, P	15	1	0	0
RX.Curry, P	17	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Kwan, LF	0-3	0	0	0
2A.Rosario, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Naylor, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5J.Bell, DH	0-3	0	0	0
6O.Gonzalez, RF	1-3	0	0	0
7A.Gimenez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8M. Zunino, C	0-3	0	0	0
9M.Straw, CF	0-2	0	0	0