Reds vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2023

Reds at Royals

12:10 am • BSKC

Cincinnati Reds

0-2

7 - 4

Kansas City Royals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Lynch			4.64	3-4
B.Lively			5.38	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 0-2	-1.5+140	o9.5+100	-115
Royals 0-0	+1.5-170	u9.5-120	-105

Thursday 12:10 a.m.

June 15, 2023

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

KC -105

1.05u

See my Lynch K prop write up to see why I like his K upside. He’s been unlucky in a lot of key areas so far and think it’s a good time to buy low. Lively has been fairly lucky in key stats that will likely regress going forward. I would bet KC up to -115

D.Lynch o4.5 Ks-140

1.4u

His expected K/9 is 10.5 based on his underlying metrics. He uses a filthy change/slider combo on 50% of his pitches and is someone I want to invest in right now. The Reds will be sending 9 RHB against him, but Lynch’s K% is 4% higher against RHB in his career. Projecting this closer to -180

CIN -113

Under 9.5-110

1.1u

B.Lively o4.5 Ks-105

I'm not sure how sustainable it is, but Lively has been crushing in the strikeout department as a starter. He has had at least five strikeouts in all five starts, boasting a strikeout rate of 27.3% in that time. His swinging-strike rate hints at regression, but he's facing a Royals roster with a 25.7% strikeout rate against righties this year. He may come back to earth, but it's not necessarily in this matchup. This could wind up looking foolish, but I do think we should have interest in the over on Lively until he regresses or until the market adjusts up more.

The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.

The Reds are just 9-13 (.409) after a loss as favorites since last season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.

The Royals are just 18-49 (.269) this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 7-6 (.538) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .783.

Michael Massey has an OPS of just .597 this season -- fifth worst in MLB-- second Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .393 (105 PAs) this season -- best among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

MJ Melendez has struck out in 30% of PA's this season -- 12th highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Alexis Diaz has a strikeout rate of 47% this season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	38-43	44-37	32-38	49-40
Reds	82-78	40-39	42-39	29-43	53-34

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	71-90-1	31-50	40-40-1	30-40	41-47-1
Reds	58-91-11	26-45-8	32-46-3	20-47-5	37-44-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	43-38	39-42	40-30	40-49
Reds	83-79	44-35	38-43	39-33	43-44

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 14th	CIN	L 4-5	+1.5 W	U 10	CIN -105
Jun 13th	CIN	L 4-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	CIN -112
Jun 11th	@BAL	L 3-11	+1.5 L	O 9	BAL +135
Jun 10th	@BAL	L 1-6	+1.5 L	U 9.5	BAL +120
Jun 9th	@BAL	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 8	BAL +159

Keegan Thompson
RP
Thompson is out with inactive
Out
Noelvi Marte
3B
Marte is day-to-day with side
Day-to-Day
Reiver Sanmartin
RP
Sanmartin is out with elbow
Out
Brandon Williamson
SP
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Graham Ashcraft
RP
Ashcraft is out with groin
Out
Chase Burns
SP
Burns is out with hip
Out
Julian Aguiar
SP
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
SP
Lowder is out with elbow
Out
Carson Spiers
RP
Spiers is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Lively, P	95	5.2	4	2
LA.Young, P	18	1	0	1
RB.Farmer, P	7	0.1	0	0
RF.Cruz, P	20	1	1	0
RD.Duarte, P	22	0.1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	10	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Newman, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
2M.McLain, 2B	2-4	2	1	3
3J.India, DH	2-4	1	1	2
4E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
6T.Stephenson, C	0-4	0	0	0
7S.Fairchild, LF	1-3	1	1	1
8T. Hopkins, RF	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Barrero, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Lynch, P	102	7	3	7
RN. Wittgren, P	12	1	2	0
RJ.Cuas, P	13	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Pratto, 1B	1-5	1	0
2S.Perez, DH	0-1	0	0
2M.Garcia, PR	2-3	1	0
2M.Garcia, DH	2-3	1	0
3M.Melendez, RF	2-5	0	1
4B.Witt, SS	3-5	1	1
5M.Massey, 2B	0-3	0	0
6E.Olivares, LF	4-5	1	0
7N.Lopez, 3B	0-4	0	0
8F.Fermin, C	1-5	0	0
9D.Blanco, CF	2-5	0	1