Reds vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - April 7, 2026

Here with our first Andrew Abbott fade of the year. Abbott did not look good in his last start, and the advanced metrics continue to hate his stuff. He has a .265 xBA with just a 20.5% whiff rate and is striking out batters only 18% of the time. Abbott ended last season with a solid 2.87 ERA, but his expected metrics told a different story, with a 3.55 xERA and a 4.31 xFIP. This season has been much of the same, as he currently owns a 3.09 ERA with a 4.63 xERA and a 3.73 xFIP. Abbott remains a major regression candidate, and his pitch modeling is below average. He has just a 93 Stuff+ grade, which is six points down from last season, along with his Pitching+ being down five points as well. The Marlins offense is 6th in wRC+ this season and has historically seen Abbott well. Sandy Alcantara looks all the way back. After a disappointing 2025 season, he appears to be back in form. Sandy currently has a 0 ERA through two starts, and pitch modeling loves him. He has a 100th percentile pitching run value grade, along with a 1.41 xERA and a .156 xBA. Even though it’s a small sample size, these are elite numbers. While I don’t expect Sandy to keep a 0 ERA, he’s impressed me this year and I think he can carry over his success to his third start. The Reds offense has been awful to start 2026, ranking 28th in wRC+. The Reds lineup may have the bigger names, but Miami’s lineup has been far superior to begin the season. The Marlins bullpen is also in a good spot after using just one arm last night. Cincinnati’s bullpen does rank one spot higher than the Marlins in ERA, but their expected numbers are much worse. I like the Marlins to bounce back after being shut out by the Reds last night. Give me the Marlins to win.

Kambi off-market line of the day, don't play elsewhere

@Zerillo 60-Grade https://myaction.app/IGljuzsa91b

Bet to -122

#EV Pinny -121 BM -117 BO -110