Red Sox vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 2, 2023

Red Sox at Royals

12:10 am • BSKC

Boston Red Sox

1-2

2 - 13

Kansas City Royals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J. Lyles			6.28	6-17
J.Paxton			4.50	7-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 1-2	-1.5-125	o10-105	-200
Royals 0-0	+1.5+105	u10-115	+164

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

September 02, 2023

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

Over 9.5-110

Available at FanDuel. I do think there's value in the Royals' moneyline, but I'd rather take the over on the total instead. The reason I looked at those two markets is that James Paxton hasn't looked right recently. His velocity has been down for his past 9 starts, and he has a 4.69 SIERA in that time. A lot of that has come against better offenses than this, and he did shut out the Royals for 5.1 innings during this stretch. But Kansas City had a 46.7% hard-hit rate in that game, so the zero earned runs allowed likely came with a bit of luck. The Red Sox are facing Jordan Lyles and the Royals' rough bullpen on the other side, meaning there's a scenario in which they hit the over by themselves. But I do think the Royals' offense will contribute at least something here.

KC +168

0.84u

Bet to +142

Featured Insight
The Royals have scored 2.3 runs per game while trailing over the last two weeks -- fifth-highest in MLB (119 games). The Red Sox have allowed 2.3 runs per game while leading over the last two weeks -- tied for seventh-highest in MLB (100 games).

TRY FOR FREE

Featured Insight
The Red Sox are batting .252 versus relief pitchers since last season -- second-best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .257 (1,059-for-4,119) against RoyalsRPs since last season -- second-worst in MLB.

TRY FOR FREE

The Red Sox are just 30-52 (.366) after a loss as underdogs since last season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.

Adam Duvall has an OPS of .933 this season -- ninth best among hitters with at least 199 total PA's-- 97th Percentile. Tucker Davidson has allowed an OPS of .843 (192 PAs) this season -- ninth worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

Masataka Yoshida has struck out in just 12% of PA's this season -- seventh lowest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. Jordan Lyles has a strikeout rate of just 16% this season -- tied for third lowest among qualified SPs-- ninth Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	38-43	44-37	32-38	49-40
Red Sox	87-75	43-38	44-37	53-50	34-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	71-90-1	31-50	40-40-1	30-40	41-47-1
Red Sox	76-82-4	33-45-3	43-37-1	50-50-3	26-30-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	43-38	39-42	40-30	40-49
Red Sox	89-73	48-33	41-40	61-42	28-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 31st	PIT	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 9.5	PIT +105
Aug 30th	PIT	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8.5	PIT -150
Aug 29th	PIT	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 9	PIT -120
Aug 27th	@SEA	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 8	SEA +260
Aug 26th	@SEA	L 2-15	+1.5 L	O 8.5	SEA +210

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Jovani Moran
RP
Moran is out with arm
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	36	1.1	0	6
RM. Llovera, P	11	0.2	0	0
LB.Walter, P	82	4	5	7
LJ.Jacques, P	27	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Verdugo, RF	1-4	1	1	2
2R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
2E.Valdez, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
3J.Turner, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4T.Casas, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	0-2	0	0	0
5C.Rafaela, PH	1-2	0	0	0
5C.Rafaela, CF	1-2	0	0	0
6M.Yoshida, LF	0-2	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, PH	0-1	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, LF	0-1	0	0	0
7T.Story, SS	0-4	0	0	0
8L.Urias, 2B	0-2	1	0	0
8L.Urias, 3B	0-2	1	0	0
9C.Wong, C	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RJ. Lyles, P		114	8	7	2
RS.Cruz, P		26	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	2-4	1	0	2
1M.Garcia, SS	2-4	1	0	2
2B.Witt, SS	3-5	2	1	2
2S.Taylor, PR	0-0	0	0	0
2S.Taylor, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
3S.Perez, 1B	3-5	2	2	4
4M.Massey, 2B	1-5	0	0	0
5F.Fermin, C	2-4	1	0	0
6N.Velazquez, LF	2-5	2	1	2
7D.Waters, RF	1-4	2	0	0
7D.Waters, CF	1-4	2	0	0
8N.Loftin, DH	2-3	1	0	1
9K.Isbel, CF	1-3	2	0	2
9D.Blanco, RF	0-1	0	0	0