Padres vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2024

Padres at Brewers

5:10 pm • SDPA

San Diego Padres

6-14

0 - 1

Milwaukee Brewers

10-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Wilson			4.04	5-4
M.King			2.95	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 6-14	-1.5	-1.5+154	o8.5-102	-105
Brewers 10-9	u8.5	+1.5-185	u8.5-116	-115

Wednesday 5:10 p.m.

April 17, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

M.King u15.5 Outs+100

Under in 3/4, high pitches per PA. Brewers bats running hot.

MIL -112

0.89u

... home short fav that made playoffs last year off a loss of 3 now favorite Overall: 267-163-0,62% (ROI:14%) Season:6-2-0,75% (ROI:38%)

Under 9-120

0.5u

Bet to -124 or 8.5 (-105)

SD -110 (F5)

1.1u

SD -110 (F5)

0.55u

Bet to -118

Featured Insight
Opponents had a hard-hit rate of just 37% against the Padres RPs last season -- fourth best in MLB. Brewers hitters had a hard-hit rate of just 38% last season -- seventh worst in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Brewers allowed just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations last season -- second lowest in MLB (106 games). The Padres scored just 1.0 runs per game in close and late situations last season -- fourth lowest in MLB (93 games).

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's MLB Bets for Wednesday
Sean Zerillo•
Apr 17, 2024 UTC

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The Brewers are 28-0 (1.000) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .793.

Jake Cronenworth is batting just .236 since the 2022 season -- 14th worst in MLB-- 13th Percentile. Left handed batters are hitting just .190 (92-for-483) against Freddy Peralta since the 2022 season -- eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP-- 94th Percentile.

30% of Ha-seong Kim strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 88th Percentile. 38% of Hoby Milner strikeouts are looking since the 2022 season -- fourth highest among qualified RPs-- 98th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 74% (26 SO in 35 PAs) with two-strikes this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% -- 100th Percentile.

Michael King has walked 13 of 88 batters (15%) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% -- first Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 39% (26 SO in 66 PAs) this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 98th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 16th	SD	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	SD -102
Apr 15th	SD	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 8.5	SD -115
Apr 14th	@BAL	L 4-6	+1.5 L	O 9	BAL +185
Apr 13th	@BAL	W 11-5	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL +124
Apr 12th	@BAL	W 11-1	-1.5 W	O 8.5	MIL -125

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is questionable with back
Questionable

Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Blake Perkins
OF
Perkins is out with leg
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RM.King, P		109	7.2	10	1
LW.Peralta, P		8	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Bogaerts, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2F.Tatis, RF	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Profar, LF	0-3	0	0	0
4M.Machado, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5H.Kim, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6J.Merrill, CF	1-3	0	0	0
7T.Wade, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8M.Batten, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
9K.Higashioka, C	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RB.Wilson, P	57	3.2	2
LB.Hudson, P	21	2.1	0
RE.Peguero, P	13	1	0
RA.Uribe, P	14	1	1
RJ.Payamps, P	16	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1S.Frelick, LF	0-4	0	0
1S.Frelick, RF	0-4	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	0-3	0	0
3J.Bauers, 1B	0-3	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-2	0	0
5O.Dunn, 3B	0-3	0	0
5J.Ortiz, 3B	0-0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, DH	0-2	0	0
7B.Turang, 2B	1-3	1	0
8J.Chourio, RF	0-3	0	0
8J.Wiemer, LF	0-0	0	0
9B.Perkins, CF	1-3	0	1