Orioles vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2024

Orioles at Twins

12:10 am • BSN

Baltimore Orioles

34-46

7 - 2

Minnesota Twins

38-42

pitcher		team	era	w-l
P.Lopez			4.08	15-10
C.Povich			5.20	3-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Orioles 34-46	+1.5	+1.5-170	o8-112	+124
Twins 38-42	u8.5	-1.5+142	u8-108	-148

Saturday 12:10 a.m.

September 28, 2024

Target FieldMinneapolis

BAL +140

1.4u

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Cade Povich’s 5.59 ERA and 2-9 record are concerning, but his xERA (4.14) suggests he’s performed better than it seems. He needs to reduce home runs and walks. The Orioles' offense, ranking 12th in wOBA post-All-Star break, can cover for his struggles. Pablo López, with a 2.74 ERA post-break, is showing fatigue, and Minnesota’s offense ranks 27th in wRC+. Baltimore's top-10 offense may capitalize on Minnesota's weaknesses.

B.Buxton o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-140

Over 8-110

Under 8.5-106

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Under 8.5+100

0.5u

Bet to -112

BAL +145

0.73u

Bet to +138

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Featured Insight
The Twins are batting .302 with RISP over the last two weeks -- fourth best in MLB. Opponents are hitting .375 (15-for-40) against Orioles RPs with RISP over the last two weeks -- second worst in MLB.

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The Orioles are 160-12 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .900.

Gunnar Henderson is batting .421 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- 10th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has a strike rate of 68% on the first pitch of at-bats since last season -- third highest among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP-- 97th Percentile.

Ryan Mountcastle is batting .418 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for 14th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has a strike rate of 67% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- eighth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 21-21 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 17 of Twins' 38 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	43-37	22-16	21-21	27-24	15-13
Orioles	30-50	12-26	18-24	14-29	15-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	34-42-4	17-20-1	17-22-3	23-26-2	10-16-2
Orioles	33-44-3	20-16-2	13-28-1	21-20-2	12-23-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	38-42	21-17	17-25	27-24	11-17
Orioles	34-46	17-21	17-25	19-24	14-22

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 26th	MIA	L 6-8	-1.5 L	O 8.5	MIA -262
Sep 25th	MIA	W 8-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	MIN -197
Sep 24th	MIA	L 1-4	-1.5 L	U 8	MIA -254
Sep 22nd	@BOS	L 3-9	-1.5 L	O 8	BOS -121
Sep 22nd	@BOS	L 1-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	BOS -143

Royce Lewis
3B
Lewis is out with hamstring
Out

Albert Suarez
RP
Suarez is out with shoulder
Out
Kyle Bradish
SP
Bradish is out with elbow
Out
Grayson Rodriguez
SP
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Wells
SP
Wells is out with elbow
Out
Adley Rutschman
C
Rutschman is out with oblique
Out
Cade Povich
SP
Povich is out with hip
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Povich, P	79	5.2	2	0
RJ.Webb, P	22	1.1	2	0
LD.Coulombe, P	17	1	0	0
RS.Dominguez, P	22	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1G.Henderson, SS	0-3	0	0	1
2J.Westburg, 2B	0-5	0	0	1
3A.Santander, RF	2-4	0	0	1
4C.Cowser, LF	1-5	1	1	1
5A.Rutschman, C	2-5	1	0	0
6R.O'Hearn, DH	1-3	1	1	2
6E.Rivera, PH	1-1	0	0	0
6J.Holliday, PR	0-1	1	0	0
6J.Holliday, DH	0-1	1	0	0
7R.Mountcastle, 1B	3-5	1	0	0
8C.Mullins, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9R.Urias, 3B	1-4	1	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	111	5.2	8	2
LC.Thielbar, P	15	1.1	0	1
LK.Funderburk, P	41	1	1	4
RM.Tonkin, P	18	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Margot, RF	1-4	0	0
2C.Correa, SS	0-3	1	0
3B.Buxton, CF	2-4	1	0
4C.Santana, 1B	1-4	0	2
5R.Lewis, 3B	0-4	0	0
6K.Farmer, 2B	0-1	0	0
6B.Lee, PH	0-2	0	0
6B.Lee, 2B	0-2	0	0
7R.Jeffers, DH	0-4	0	0
8C.Vazquez, C	0-2	0	0
9W.Castro, LF	0-3	0	0