Brewers vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - May 22, 2024

Brewers at Marlins

10:40 pm • BSFL

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

0 - 1

Miami Marlins

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Luzardo			5.00	3-6
F.Peralta			3.68	11-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 1-2	-1.5+130	o7-120	-130
Marlins 0-0	+1.5-155	u7-101	+110

Wednesday 10:40 p.m.

May 22, 2024

loanDepot parkMiami

MIA +105 (F5)

1.05u

J.Luzardo u17.5 Outs-120

1.2u

I see this as such a tough spot for Luzardo. He relies on his chase rate, because his zone% (41%) ranks 100th/140 pitchers with 30+ innings. The Brewers as a team have the lowest chase rate, and the highest walk rate vs lefties. Luzardo is under this line in 5/7 starts, and opposing lefties and 5/9 opposing lefties are under vs MIL. Six brewers in the lineup today have an above avg pitches per PA (Luzardo is 16th at 4.07).

F.Peralta u6.5 Ks+114

This one has value up to about -110. 13/15 righty starters under this line vs MIA, incl 11/L11. And each of the L10 at 4 or under. Overall, only has a 26% K% vs power pitchers this season. Peralta under in each of his L3 road starts as is.

Featured Insight
The Brewers have scored three or more runs in an inning 37 times (9%) this season -- highest in MLB. Marlins have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played this season -- highest in MLB.

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The Brewers are 34-26 (.567) after a road win since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Marlins are just 38-34 (.528) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.

The Brewers are 33-3 (.917) when they've had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Marlins are just 61-16 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Willy Adames struck out in 27% of PA's in the 2022 season -- 12th highest in MLB-- ninth Percentile. Jesus Luzardo had a strikeout rate of 30% in the 2022 season -- 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

Tim Anderson has an OPS of just .473 this season -- 14th worst among hitters with at least 67 total PA's-- fourth Percentile. Bryan Hudson has allowed an OPS of just .463 (98 PAs) this season -- 12th best among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 40% (51/129) against Freddy Peralta this season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- 100th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .318 (100 Total Bases / 314 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season -- 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 -- 93rd Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 33% (116 SO in 350 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season -- best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 53 of Marlins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	77-85	35-46	42-39	2-15	75-70
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	85-66-11	53-20-8	32-46-3	11-5-1	74-61-10
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	62-100	30-51	32-49	4-13	58-87
Brewers	93-69	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 21st	MIL	L 5-7	+1.5 L	O 8	MIL +114
May 20th	MIL	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIA +121
May 19th	NYM	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 8.5	NYM +120
May 18th	NYM	W 10-9	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIA +105
May 17th	NYM	W 8-0	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIA +105

Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Sandy Alcantara
P
Alcantara is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Jesus Luzardo
P
Luzardo is out with back
Out
Max Meyer
P
Meyer is out with shoulder
Out
Eury Perez
P
Perez is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P		98	7	7	1
RE.Peguero, P		6	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Monasterio, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	0	0
3C.Yelich, LF	0-4	0	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-3	0	0	0
5J.Ortiz, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Sanchez, DH	2-3	0	0	0
6J.Wiemer, PR	0-0	0	0	0
6J.Wiemer, DH	0-0	0	0	0
7J.Chourio, RF	0-3	0	0	0
8O.Miller, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
9B.Perkins, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Luzardo, P		100	8	4	0
LT.Scott, P		16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Chisholm, CF	1-4	1	1	1
2B.De La Cruz, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3J.Bell, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
3E.Rivera, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
4J.Sanchez, RF	0-2	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
5J.Burger, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
6N.Gordon, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7T.Anderson, SS	1-3	0	0	0
8O.Lopez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
9N.Fortes, C	1-3	0	0	0