Thirty games. Twelve teams. One gold medal.
This is what the Winter Olympics are all about, with the world's two biggest hockey powerhouses going at it for bragging rights for the next four years. And most importantly — the gold medal.
Our staff has compiled six best bets for the gold medal game, so let's dive in and prepare for the 8:10 a.m. ET puck drop between the USA and Canada which is one of hockey's most anticipated matchups in hockey
For Nick Martin's preview on USA vs Canada, click here!
USA vs Canada Gold Medal Predictions, Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NHL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USA vs. Canada Best Bets
By Tony Sartori
A rematch of the 4 Nations final will decide the Olympic gold medal. Canada won that tournament with a 3-2 victory over the United States, and a similar type of game is likely this time.
There is no denying that both teams possess more than enough firepower to push this total over.
However, now that we are in the medal round, the likelihood of a tight contest increases. Games typically become more conservative at this stage, with defensemen taking fewer risks and forwards committing to stronger two-way play.
Both goaltenders will also be difficult to beat. The United States’ Connor Hellebuyck is the best goaltender in the world, and he has reinforced that reputation in this tournament.
Through four appearances, Hellebuyck is 4-0 with a .947 SV% and a 1.23 goals-against average. Meanwhile, Canada’s Jordan Binnington has also been strong.
Through his four starts, Binnington is 4-0 with a .914 SV% and a 1.74 goals-against average. These were the same two goaltenders who squared off in the 4 Nations final, a game that featured five total goals.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-140)
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Full transparency, I might be picking with my heart a little bit here, but I do think there’s room for that in sports betting from time to time.
I’m sure plenty of people will lay out the case for backing Canada, and while there are many logical reasons to do so, I’ll make the case against it.
For starters, Canada hasn’t exactly looked dominant as this tournament has progressed. Czechia and Finland both had them on the ropes, and in the knockout stage, the United States has played a more complete brand of hockey, in my opinion.
Canada has dug itself into some significant holes. To be fair, the obvious counter is that they’ve shown the ability to climb out and ultimately look like the clearly better team in the end. But the way the U.S. can defend, and with Hellebuyck playing at this level, it might be too tall a task for Canada if they have to do it again.
To me, the concerns all start with their blue line. Outside of Cale Makar, the group has been a little inconsistent. Shea Theodore delivered the huge game-tying goal against Finland, but beyond that, the U.S. holds a clear advantage.
Josh Morrissey missing this game only compounds the worry. Injury concerns also extend to Sidney Crosby, who is trending toward a game-time decision. If he’s not able to go, that’s another major blow.
Then there’s Jordan Binnington. I genuinely don’t know how he keeps doing it, but he continues to show up in high-pressure spots. Nearly every traditional metric would suggest he shouldn’t even be on this roster, yet it’s almost impossible to make the case that he doesn’t belong.
That said, he holds a .744 SV% on high-danger chances this season with St. Louis and a well-documented, league-worst -24.9 GSAx. In theory, that could catch up to him here … “in theory” being the key phrase.
On the other side, Connor Hellebuyck has dealt with his share of criticism in big moments over the years, but he’s answered those questions emphatically in this tournament. Among goalies with multiple games played, he leads the way with a .947 SV% and a 1.23 GAA. I’d give yet another edge to the U.S. in net.
Up front, Canada’s advantage is undeniable. McDavid, Celebrini, and MacKinnon have combined for 30 points, and all 14 forwards have at least a point, with 10 recording multiple points. On top of that, they lead the Olympics with an absurd 43.75 power-play percentage.
The U.S. may be a step below in top-end talent up front, but they’ve seen contributions from 11 forwards, 10 of whom have at least three points. The Tkachuk brothers have a knack for showing up in big moments, and Jack Hughes has really stepped up. With Tage Thompson adding scoring balance, their depth gives the U.S. the potential for a dangerous, well-rounded attack.
Whether it’s Hellebuyck silencing doubters or Auston Matthews breaking through on a major stage, there are a few narratives waiting to be rewritten. It’ll take a full 60-minute (or more) effort, but with their advantage defensively and seemingly in net, I’m inclined to trust the old adage, “defense wins championships.” At the same time, the U.S. has plenty of offense to get the job done.
I like the red, white, and blue to take home gold for the first time since the 1980 Miracle on Ice.
Pick: USA Moneyline (+110)
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By Greg Liodice
I'm standing by my semifinals best bet, because I really think Mitch Marner had a few good opportunities to get on the board one way or another.
This game in particular, will be a little more difficult to find pathways to create a play or two just because USA's defense has incredibly active sticks and can lay the body.
And in the past, Marner hasn't fared well when the stakes are at their highest. Just ask Maple Leafs fans.
I just like the fact that Marner will be lined up with his Vegas Golden Knight teammate Mark Stone, and Nick Suzuki did an admirable job at filling in for the injured Sidney Crosby.
It will be interesting to see whether Crosby plays for this game; however, after watching him play for the past 20 years, I can't envision him missing what could potentially be his final Olympic game ever.
If that is the case and Crosby plays, Marner notching an assist could be even more possible.
For the final game of the 2026 Winter Olympics, I'm going to side with Tony and not expect a whole lot of scoring. But in the case we do see a goal, I'm expecting Marner to have a hand in it.
Pick: Mitch Marner 1+ Assist (+190)
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By Nick Griffith
As I mentioned in my previous pick, Jordan Binnington has a concerning .744 SV% on high-danger chances this season with St. Louis, along with a league-worst -24.9 GSAx.
Conveniently for the U.S., of players in these Olympics, it has the two forwards tied for the NHL lead in high-danger goals this season— Matt Boldy and Jake Guentzel, with 20 each.
On top of that, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the Guentzel–Matthews–Boldy line at times, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them breaks through in this game.
Both Guentzel and Boldy have a goal apiece in the Olympics, but Boldy stands out as he’s second on the team in shots on goal with 18.
With both sitting around +500 on FanDuel to score, I see value in either pick, though I’d give a slight edge to Boldy as a long-shot based on his shot volume.
Not to mention, it would be a nice touch for GM Bill Guerin to see one of his Minnesota players get on the scoresheet after some of the heat he’s taken over Olympic roster decisions.
Pick: Matt Boldy Anytime Goal Scorer (+500)
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By Greg Liodice
Even though Tage Thompson left the game against Slovakia before the third period, coach Mike Sullivan announced that he'll still go for the gold medal game.
Thompson, along with Quinn Hughes, has looked exactly like what Team USA was missing when they lost to Canada in the 4 Nations Final.
Speed, scoring, shiftiness, size and rippers for shots.
I was amazed at the goal Thompson scored on Friday, as it was only a goal that a true sniper can score.
Samuel Hlavaj left zero room for the puck to find its way in, but the puck had eyes and found a way.
What truly set Team USA back in the 4 Nations was their depth's inability to score, but it looks like those concerns have been washed away in these Olympics, as seven players have tucked in two or more goals.
But Thompson's presence has been a huge factor as he's been paired with the red-hot Larkin and Jack Hughes who made up for most of the scoring on Friday.
I also think we'll see plenty of opportunities for Thompson to rip a couple of power-play one-timers, similar to the goal he scored against Slovakia. Sullivan has him on the left wing of Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk, who have enjoyed dishing the puck around this tournament.
Pick: Tage Thompson Anytime Goal Scorer (+425)
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By Tony Sartori
As an American, it pains me to say there is value on Canada’s moneyline at -113. Hellebuyck is the superior goaltender in this matchup and could certainly carry the United States to gold.
However, he lost to this same Canadian team in the 4 Nations final and was outplayed by Binnington in that contest. It would not be surprising if history repeated itself.
Canada also holds the advantage across the rest of the ice. The Canadians feature the deeper forward group and arguably the stronger defensive corps as well.
There is little debate that Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are the two best players in the world, and both represent Canada in this tournament.
This line may be slightly discounted due to Canada’s tight knockout-round wins, which required late heroics against Czechia and Finland. Still, at -113, the value lies with the stronger overall roster.
If Canada gets "goal-tendered" by Connor Hellebuyck, then all you can do is tip your cap.
Pick: Canada Moneyline (-120)
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