Sweden and Latvia meet in the qualifier round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 3:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on CNBC and streamed on Peacock.
Sweden is favored by 2.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-155o/ +130u). Sweden is a -1100 favorite to win outright, while Latvia is +700 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sweden vs Latvia predictions and Olympics picks.
Sweden vs Latvia Odds, Pick
- Sweden vs Latvia Puck Line: Sweden -2.5 (-165), Latvia +2.5 (+140)
- Sweden vs Latvia Over/Under: 5.5 (-155o / +130u)
- Sweden vs Latvia Moneyline: Sweden -1100, Latvia +700
Sweden vs. Latvia Preview
Sweden
It’s been a gradual build for Sweden thus far. They were pushed by Italy in the opener and dropped a 4–1 game to rival Finland, but started to find their footing as things went along against Slovakia.
A late goal was costly, allowing Slovakia to snag the group’s top spot and a bye, but it felt like a step in the right direction overall. Of course, they would’ve liked that top spot given expectations, but the bigger takeaway is that they’re starting to play their best hockey heading into the knockout stage.
Joel Eriksson Ek leads Sweden with 20 SOG, and Lucas Raymond tops the team in points. Both will be key on special teams — Ek as a strong two-way player and Raymond as an important power-play contributor.
Sweden’s special teams have been a mixed bag. They scored on the power play and short-handed against Slovakia, but the penalty kill has been questionable. They officially killed four of five penalties in the game, but Slovakia scored immediately after two of those kills, and the one they gave up ultimately decided the group standings.
Rasmus Dahlin has looked like the only Swede playing up to standard in all three games, but Eriksson Ek, Kempe, and Pettersson all got on the scoresheet with a goal against Slovakia, which is encouraging.
Filip Gustavsson should be back in net, looking to steady things after a shaky start. He’s had a solid season with the Wild, posting a .906 save percentage, 2.64 GAA, and 3.0 GSAx.
If Gustavsson doesn’t go, his Minnesota backup, Jesper Wallstedt, could get a look. Wallstedt got off to a hot start this season with a .967 save percentage and 1.14 GAA over six December starts, but has cooled off since. Still, there’s plenty of potential for Sweden to explore what Wallstedt can offer on the Olympic stage.
Latvia
Latvia might’ve finished at the bottom of Group C, but they’ve been a much tougher matchup than expected. They grabbed a win over Germany and pushed Denmark in a tight game. Even against the U.S., they hung around until after the halfway point.
This isn’t a team that rolls over, and they've shown they can play above their weight.
Offensively, production has come from all over. Eduards Tralmaks chipped in a goal and an assist against Denmark, Dans Locmelis scored two in the win over Germany, and Zemgus Girgensons has served as a steady contributor, leading Latvia in points with four assists.
While they lack high-end NHL talent like Sweden, they still have 10 players with NHL ties. Among them, Teddy Blueger, Girgensons, and Uvis Balinskis play bottom-of-the-lineup roles, but bring a level of skill, experience, and toughness that keeps Latvia competitive.
On top of that, Eduards Tralmaks is tied for 16th in the AHL in goals this season and put together a really impressive showing against Denmark on Saturday.
Interestingly, Latvia’s NHL strength is mostly in net, with Elvis Merzlikins and Arturs Silovs.
Silovs has started the past two games after Merzlikins gave up four in the opener against the U.S. He’s also had the slightly stronger season, posting a .896 save percentage, 2.93 GAA, and -3.0 GSAx in 26 games with the Penguins, compared to Merzlikins’ .888 save percentage, 3.49 GAA, and -4.3 GSAx in 21 games with the Blue Jackets.
A starter hasn’t been confirmed, but the two are fairly even in talent. Merzlikins might offer a slightly better chance to steal a game, but the difference is marginal.
Sweden vs. Latvia Prediction
Latvia doesn’t go away. They erased two separate deficits against Germany, scoring three straight to win 4-3, and nearly pulled off another comeback against Denmark after falling behind 3–0.
For a team that finished at the bottom of the group, they’ve shown plenty of fight and enough offensive punch to stay competitive.
Sweden, meanwhile, looked like they finally flipped the switch late against Slovakia, dominating the third-period shot count 15-2 just past the halfway mark.
This sets up a matchup where Sweden should be able to generate plenty of chances, but Latvia has earned some trust when it comes to hanging around.
The total is sitting at 5.5 at some books, and there’s clearly room there. Even at 6.5, it’s still playable if you can get plus money.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-170)
