Liverpool (10-6-3) travels to London to face Fulham (8-8-3) at Craven Cottage, with kickoff scheduled for 10:00 AM EST on Sunday, January 4.
This fixture presents a fascinating clash between a home side in excellent form and a title contender that has shown recent vulnerability, particularly in front of goal.
Let’s get into my Liverpool vs Fulham prediction.
Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction
Liverpool Moneyline (-111 at bet365)
The primary prediction for this match is a Liverpool victory on the moneyline, a selection that balances their immense talent with their recent offensive inefficiencies.
Liverpool vs Fulham Odds
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -115 | 2.5 -130o / 100u | -105 |
| Fulham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -130o / 100u | +265 |
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Liverpool vs. Fulham picks.
Liverpool vs Fulham Picks
Liverpool Moneyline (-111 at bet365)
The case for a Liverpool win centers on their underlying performance metrics, which tell a different story than their recent score lines. In their last match, a scoreless draw against Leeds, Liverpool still managed to generate 2.08 expected goals (xG). This figure shows a team that continues to create high-quality scoring opportunities, even when the final product is absent. A return to their usual clinical finishing should be enough to secure a result.
Fulham enters this contest as a formidable home team. They have won five of their last eight Premier League matches at Craven Cottage and are currently on a four-game unbeaten streak in the league. Impressively, they kept their opponent off the scoreboard in four of those five home victories. However, a deeper look reveals a potential weakness.
Throughout the season, Fulham has struggled to create consistent offensive pressure, averaging just 1.14 xG per match. This ranks among the lowest outputs in the division and could prove to be the difference against a team with Liverpool’s quality. While Fulham's defense is solid, their inability to sustain an attack may leave them vulnerable against a side that can dominate possession and create chances.
Liverpool vs Fulham Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Liverpool | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 49.2% | 24.5% | 26.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Liverpool | Total Goals | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | 2.63 | 1.08 |
Liverpool vs Fulham Betting Analysis
While Liverpool is the clear favorite, their road form this season leaves the door open for a competitive match. The Reds have collected 13 points from nine away games, a subpar return for a club with championship aspirations. However, their recent results show improvement, with seven points from their last three matches away from Anfield. This positive trend, combined with their superior talent, gives them an edge.
A significant historical trend also works against the home side. Fulham manager Marco Silva has a notoriously poor record against the league's reigning champions, with zero wins in 11 attempts. That is the worst record of any manager in the competition's history.
From a player's perspective, Liverpool’s attack has multiple threats. Hugo Ekitike leads the team with eight goals in 13 league starts. At the same time, teammate Florian Wirtz, despite only one goal in 18 appearances, remains a creative force. He registered four shots and 0.68 xG against Leeds, a sign that he is on the verge of a breakout performance.
For Fulham, Harry Wilson has been the standout performer and represents their best chance to find the net. Ultimately, Liverpool’s offensive depth and proven ability to generate chances should overwhelm a Fulham side that, despite its strong form, lacks elite offensive firepower. The data suggests that visitors can find a way to secure all three points.
