A fascinating London derby is on the schedule for Saturday, January 17, as Chelsea (8-6-7) hosts Brentford (10-8-3) at Stamford Bridge in England, with kickoff set for 10:00 a.m. ET.
Chelsea is favored at a -143 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-163o / +130u) goals.
Let's get into my Brentford vs. Chelsea prediction.
Brentford vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap (-109)
My Chelsea vs Brentford best bet is on the home team to win by two or more goals, with a half-win on the wager if they win by one goal.
Brentford vs. Chelsea Odds
| Brentford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -163o / 130u | +350 | |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -163o / 130u | -143 | |
Brentford vs. Chelsea Pick
Pick: Chelsea -0.75 Asian Handicap (-109)
This will be Liam Rosenior’s first league game at the helm for Chelsea, and the expectation is for an immediate response from a talented roster. Despite a difficult stretch of results, the Blues have the quality necessary to record a victory, which is why we support the home side on the spread.
Chelsea's underlying metrics suggest a turnaround could be imminent. The club boasts the third-highest expected goals (xG) total in the league with 37.25, an indication that they create high-quality chances consistently.
Rosenior will be eager to build momentum at Stamford Bridge, and he certainly has the offensive firepower to cause problems for Brentford’s defense.
Conversely, Brentford has struggled significantly on the road. The Bees have lost seven of their 10 away matches in the Premier League this season. In five of those losses, the defeat was by a margin of two or more goals.
While Chelsea has shown inconsistency at home, the new manager effect combined with their offensive potential gives them a clear edge against a team with a poor travel record.
Brentford vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Brentford | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 19.3% | 21.0% | 59.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Brentford | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | 3.27 | 2.09 |
Brentford vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
This derby sees Brentford arrive at Stamford Bridge in significantly better form and with two more points in the standings than their hosts. Along with Arsenal, Brentford has collected the most points over the last five matches (13), a run that has propelled them to fifth in the table and into contention for European qualification.
The pressure is squarely on Chelsea, who sit in eighth and are without a win in their last five league contests.
The head-to-head history adds another layer of intrigue. Brentford has enjoyed tremendous success at this venue recently, with victories on three of their last four visits. Overall, Chelsea has managed to win just one of the last eight encounters between the two clubs.
The reverse fixture earlier this season ended in a 2-2 draw where Brentford actually generated a higher xG despite Chelsea’s control of possession.
However, historical trends can often shift with major changes, such as a new manager. Chelsea's poor form, which includes just one win in their previous nine Premier League matches, led to the managerial change.
Rosenior needs to get results quickly, and a home match provides the perfect opportunity.
Chelsea's defensive record is a concern, as they have kept only two clean sheets in their last seven home league games. An early goal from Brentford could change the atmosphere, but the Blues' superior talent and motivation for a fresh start under a new boss should not be underestimated.
