Experience
Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.
His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:
- It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
- He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
- He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position
Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.
Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.
He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.
Education
Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point
More from Sean Koerner
Expert Bettors Build A Same Game Parlay For the Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions! | Action Island
Sean Koerner🔮's Picks
Today
Jon Rahm +1400
0.05u
As I wrote up in my Bryson prop, the course will be brutal this week and I think Rahm’s elite approach and around the green play will give him a huge edge here.
61
Bryson DeChambeau (Round 1) Over 73.5 strokes -120
0.6u
Former full-time PGA Tour member and now full-time content creator, Bryson is already a 2-time U.S. Open champion and typically enters these events with a massive advantage thanks to his distance off the tee. U.S. Opens tend to reward longer hitters, especially on demanding layouts where distance can separate the elite from the field.
This week at Shinnecock, however, presents a much different challenge. While the fairways are expected to be relatively accommodating, missing them will be punished severely by the brutal rough and some of the trickiest greens we’ve ever seen.
Bryson can still gain strokes off the tee, but this feels like one of those courses where he won’t be able to simply overpower the course and impose his will the way he can at certain venues.
Adding to the challenge, we’re expecting some pretty heavy winds tomorrow. I think scoring conditions could get ugly in a hurry, which should make Bryson one of the more entertaining players to follow. If nothing else, watching one of the game’s biggest personalities try to solve what could be the ultimate test of golf should be a lot of fun.
79
M.Johannes u8.5 Pts-124
NY
96
95
CHI
0.5u
FINAL 6/18
With Sabrina back in action, Johannes’ playing time takes a hit. While she’s been an excellent 3-point shooter throughout her career, she’s unlikely to maintain the 43% clip she’s shooting from deep so far this season.
This is also a tougher matchup for her specifically. The Sky have allowed the 3rd-fewest made 3-pointer rate in the league, and Johannes’ scoring profile is heavily dependent on shots from beyond the arc. Realistically, she probably needs 3+ made threes to clear this number, and while that’s certainly possible, I think a more likely outcome is something like 2 made threes and 6 points.
That still leaves some room for her to add a bucket or a couple free throws and finish with 8 while the under cashes. I have her projected closer to 7.0 points with around a 62% chance to stay under 8.5. I’d still lean under at 7.5 if it gets there, although that number does expose you a bit more if she happens to knock down a couple threes and add a basket in her limited minutes.
89
G.Jaquez u3.5 Rebs-106
NY
96
95
CHI
0.5u
FINAL 6/18
This grades out as the toughest rebounding matchup possible for Gabrielle (don’t call her Gabby lol) in my model.
She gets most of her rebounds on misses at the rim and long 2-point misses, and the Liberty provide by far the fewest misses in both of those areas. It’s simply a bad opportunity environment for the types of rebounds she relies on.
I’m projecting her closer to 3.1 rebounds with around a 61% chance to stay under 3.5.
113
3-WAY PARLAY+455
0.68u
M.Johannes u8.5 Pts-125
NY
96
95
CHI
FINAL 6/18
G.Jaquez u3.5 Rebs+110
NY
96
95
CHI
FINAL 6/18
72
D.Hamby u8.5 Rebs-140
MIN
99
83
LA
0.7u
FINAL 6/18
My model has this rated as the toughest matchup for Hamby specifically to rack up rebounds.
Hamby tends to do most of her damage on missed 3-pointers, while Nneka Ogwumike handles a larger share of the missed 2-point opportunities. Looking at Hamby’s rebound rates by specific zones, the Lynx provide the fewest favorable rebound opportunities in the league for her.
Kelsey Plum is currently a game-time decision with a leg injury (making all bets for this game tricky). I’m projecting her to suit up and be close to full strength, but if she ends up being ruled out it would actually help Hamby’s under. Plum didn’t sign a one-year, $999,999 contract to grab rebounds and owns one of the lowest rebound rates in the league. The players who would absorb her minutes would provide more competition for rebounds, particularly on missed 3-pointers where Hamby generates a large portion of her boards.
I’m projecting Hamby closer to 7.6 rebounds and around -185 to stay under 8.5, and that’s already factoring in Cameron Brink being out already. If Plum is ruled out, the value on the under only improves.
92
J.Melbourne o7.5 Pts-103
SEA
89
94
POR
0.52u
FINAL 6/18
See the parlay pick note
104
N.Hiedeman o4.5 Ast+107
SEA
89
94
POR
0.54u
FINAL 6/18
See the parlay pick note
114
A.Kuier o4.5 Rebs-117
DAL
80
91
GS
0.59u
FINAL 6/18
Kuier replaced Maddy Siegrist in the starting lineup last game and provided a much-needed defensive boost in Dallas’ 30-point win over the Aces (cashed that Wings +3.5 with ease lol). I’m assuming Dallas sticks with her in the starting lineup tonight, and there’s a decent chance we see her play even more than the 26 minutes she logged last game, which was already a season high. That gives her a much higher ceiling than this number suggests.
This is also the best possible rebounding matchup for her in my model. Kuier generates a higher percentage of her rebounds on missed mid-range shots and above-the-break 3s, and Golden State provides the highest rate of those misses in the league.
She’s also very active on the offensive glass off missed 3-pointers. The Valkyries are so good at defending the rim that opponents naturally end up taking more 3s against them. They only rank 10th in 3-point attempts allowed per game, but that’s largely because they play at a snail’s pace and suppress overall possessions, which my projections already account for.
I’m projecting Kuier for right around 5 rebounds with a 56% chance to clear 4.5. That’s not a massive edge, even under my current 0.5u base-unit “let it rip” approach, but what really stands out here is her upside.
She has a much wider range of outcomes than most rebound props in this range, which is why I actually like her alt overs even more than the standard line. I have action on those as well. Honestly, I like every rung of the ladder, but the sweet spot is probably in the 6-7 rebound range.
The tricky part with tracking WNBA ladders is that once I start betting them, the market tends to move so quickly that by the time I get around to logging the 2nd or 3rd alt over, most of the value has already disappeared lol.
84
A.Kuier To Record 6+ Rebounds Yes+220
DAL
80
91
GS
0.15u
FINAL 6/18
🪜
60
A.Kuier To Record 8+ Rebounds Yes+750
DAL
80
91
GS
0.05u
FINAL 6/18
🪜
56
2-WAY PARLAY+254
0.2u
Tracking both plays as a parlay initially, but I’ll also be betting and tracking them separately.
After burning me last game by barely sneaking over her 4.5 assist prop late in what graded out as her toughest matchup of the season to rack up assists, Natisha Hiedeman has now cleared this in four straight games. While I’m rarely a game-log chaser, I do have this as the best possible matchup for her to generate assists. In fact, that applies to most of the Storm roster.
I have Hiedeman projected closer to 5.1 assists with around a 58% chance to clear 4.5. Not a massive edge, but certainly solid at plus money.
The sneaky part is who my model likes to pair her with.
That’s Jade Melbourne over 7.5 points. Jordan Horston is out, which should not only boost Melbourne’s playing time, but her scoring rate has also jumped significantly with Horston off the floor. She’s also one of the players Hiedeman gets the biggest assist boost to in this matchup based on where the Fire are most vulnerable defensively.
Specifically, the Fire allow a high rate of assists on corner 3s, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hiedeman sets Melbourne up for 1-2 clean looks from the corner tonight. Those are exactly the types of possessions I’ll be rooting for with the parlay, but they’re also why I like each leg individually.
There’s obviously a ton of correlation here, which is why I love the parlay at +252.
N.Hiedeman o4.5 Ast+112
SEA
89
94
POR
FINAL 6/18
J.Melbourne o7.5 Pts-103
SEA
89
94
POR
FINAL 6/18
74
Pending
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2-2-0 | 50% | 0.14u |
| Last 7 Days | 21-14-0 | 60% | 4.72u |
| Last 30 Days | 53-49-3 | 50% | 4.45u |
| All Time | 2244-1846-38 | 54% | 243.19u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1225-970-20 | 55% | 141.31u |
| MLB | 364-322-7 | 53% | 42.06u |
| NCAAB | 313-254-3 | 55% | 31.47u |
| WNBA | 181-144-4 | 55% | 24.75u |
| NCAAF | 38-28-2 | 56% | 5.17u |
| World Baseball Classic | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1.00u |
| Golf | 8-14-0 | 36% | 0.77u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| NBA | 108-106-2 | 50% | -3.45u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.