Puerto Rico will play Italy in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals on Saturday, March 14, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.
The game will start at 3 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
Puerto Rico is a -125 Moneyline favorite and a -1.5 (+130) run line favorite. The total is set at 8.5 (-110 / -110).
Here's my Puerto Rico vs Italy WBC prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 13, 2026.
Puerto Rico vs Italy WBC Prediction
- My Pick: Puerto Rico ML (-145 or Better)
My Puerto Rico vs Italy best bet is Puerto Rico to win.
Puerto Rico vs Italy Odds
| Puerto Rico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -125 |
| Italy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +100 |
- Puerto Rico vs Italy Moneyline: Puerto Rico -125, Italy +100
- Puerto Rico vs Italy Run Line: Puerto Rico -1.5 (+130), Italy +1.5 (-165)
- Puerto Rico vs Italy Total: 8.5 (-110 / -110)
Puerto Rico vs Italy WBC Preview
Puerto Rico Betting Preview
Puerto Rico went 3-1 in pool play with a loss to Canada, but it also needed a walk-off homer to beat Panama.
The biggest note in Quarterfinal play is that the starter's pitch count goes from 65 to 95.
That'll be a nice boost for Puerto Rico and its starter, Seth Lugo. Lugo twirled four scoreless innings with three strikeouts and gave up five baserunners in Puerto Rico's win over Colombia.
You won't see any high velocity stuff from Lugo. He hovers in the low 90s in his fastball but keeps hitters on their toes with his looping 12-6 curveball to put hitters away and other offerings to work in the middle of counts.
Behind Lugo is a solid bullpen. Fernando Cruz and Yacksel Ríos as the bridge to Edwin Diaz, one of the top closers in the tournament. None of those three allowed a run in pool play.
Hitting-wise, Puerto Rico struggled, posting a .211 average with .582 OPS and one homer in four games.
The big-name hitters for Puerto Rico just didn't hit well.
Heliot Ramos is the best hitter on the roster right now, and he batted just .077. Fellow MLB vets, Eddie Rosario, Nolan Arenado, and MJ Melendez each hit below .220. Willi Castro was the best Puerto Rico hitter in pool play, hitting .300.
The path for Puerto Rico is to keep this game low-scoring, with pitching being its strength.
Italy Betting Preview
Italy pulled off the biggest stunner of Pool Play, beating the United States by four runs, and locked in their spot in the quarterfinals by thrashing Mexico.
The Italians will send southpaw Sam Aldegheri to the mound. While he only has seven major league outings with the Angels under his belt, he tossed 4 2/3 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in Italy's win over Brazil.
Context matters, though. Brazil was the worst-hitting team in the tournament, so facing even a middle-of-the-pack type of lineup in Puerto Rico is a jump in competition.
Team Italy hit the cover of the ball in pool play. They hit .298 (third best) with a 1.038 OPS (second best) and 12 homers (second best). Italy isn't a top-three team in the WBC in terms of talent, but some of its bigger names performed well.
Star slugger Vinnie Pasquantino cracked three homers against Mexico — the first player with a three-home run game in WBC history. Outfielder Dante Nori was consistent in the four games, hitting .500 with a pair of homers. Pasquantino's teammate, Jac Caglianone, hit a homer and hit .375.
Most of this Italian lineup is left-handed. Pasquantino, Caglianone, Nori, Jakob Marsee, Dominic Canzone, and Miles Mastrobuoni all hit from the left side.
On the surface, facing a right-hander shouldn't be a worry for a lineup with mainly lefties. However, Lugo's curveball is built to slow down lefties more than the average right-handed pitcher.
Puerto Rico vs Italy World Baseball Classic Picks
The line is sitting at Puerto Rico -125 and Italy at +100. I think the line is fair, but I would take Puerto Rico up to -145 with the substantial pitching advantage.
Lugo should pitch deeper into the game than Aldegheri, and Puerto Rico also boasts more firepower in the back end of the bullpen.
Italy has some current and former big leaguers in the pen, namely Red Sox reliever Greg Weissert and long-time reliever Adam Ottavino.
Five of the other big-league type relivers (Dan Altavilla, Kyle Nicolas, Alek Jacob, Matt Festa, and Ron Marinaccio all gave up runs in pool play.
If the game is close in the late stages, the advantage shifts to Puerto Rico.
Pick: Puerto Rico ML (-145 or Better)
