Brazil will play Mexico in the World Baseball Classic on Sunday, March 8, in Houston, Texas. The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
Mexico is a -2400 Moneyline favorite, while Brazil is a +1200 moneyline underdog.
Here's my Brazil vs Mexico prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 8, 2026.
Brazil vs Mexico Predictions & World Baseball Classic Picks
- My Pick: Mexico -7.5
My Brazil vs Mexico best bet is on Mexico to cover the spread tonight.
Brazil vs Mexico Odds, Spread, and Total
| Brazil Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 11.5 -150 / +125 | +1200 |
| Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 +100 | 11.5 -150 / +125 | -2400 |
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Brazil vs Mexico WBC Prediction
Brazil Betting Preview
Team Brazil looked well on their way to covering the insane +9.5 point spread against the United States in its opener — until it surrendered seven runs in the ninth inning.
Game 2 was a more lifeless effort from Brazil, who is staring down an 0-3 start to the WBC. They lost 8-0 to Italy and had just four hits with none going for extra bases.
The lone bright spot of Game 1 was Lucas Ramirez, the son of former MLB star Manny Ramirez. Lucas cracked a pair of homers, including one against Logan Webb to open the game.
Not to mention, Ramirez took Jacob deGrom deep in a tune-up game for the WBC. Not bad for the 20-year-old, taking a pair of All-Stars out of the yard.
Brazil used the home run ball to score its five runs against the United States. All runs came across on three homers — Ramirez accounting for two, and Victor Mascai hit the third.
Brazil is among the least talented teams in the tournament. Reliever Thyago Vieira is the only player on the roster with MLB service time, and he’s not even in the bigs anymore.
Pitching is an even bigger issue for the Brazilians than hitting, though. Taking the mound today is a reliever, Eric Pardinho, a minor league player for the Blue Jays.
Last year at Triple-A Buffalo, Pardinho appeared in 19 games and posted a 3.50 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP. He struggled to stay in the zone, walking 12 batters in 18 innings.
Mexico Betting Preview
Mexico took home an 8-2 win over Great Britain in the first game of Pool Play B.
The game was closer than you'd think. The score was tied 1-1 in the seventh inning, before Mexico erupted for seven runs in the final two innings.
Jonathan Aranda cracked a three-run homer to give Mexico a 4-1 lead in the eighth, and then it was time to pile on.
From an offense standpoint, Mexico has a lineup full of current MLB players. Aranda, who made the AL All-Star team last year, is one of the main cogs.
Leadoff hitter Jarren Duran went 0-3 with two strikeouts and a walk. Duran has to get on base to set the table for Aranda and Randy Arozarena, who hit right behind him.
Alejandro Kirk is the cleanup hitter for this Mexico squad. He went 0-for-4 in the first game against Great Britain, but his postseason heroics with the Blue Jays show that he can perform when the lights get bright.
Mexico has an actual MLB starter taking the mound today in veteran righty Taijuan Walker. Before joining the WBC team, Walker allowed one run in two innings in his lone spring training outing for the Phillies.
Last year, Walker appeared in 34 games and started of them for the Phillies. He pitched to a 4.08 ERA with a 4.57 xERA and a 5.08 FIP.
Walker really struggled with the home run ball, allowing 1.53 HR/9. That won't be as much of a worry against non-MLB hitters, though.
How To Make Brazil vs Mexico Picks
Pound for pound, Brazil is the least talented team in the WBC. It was able to evade damage by busting out of jams early against the United States, but counting on that is tough.
I also just don't know how Brazil strings together enough hits to cover the run line. Unless they find their power stroke again, it'll be tough for them to score.
Mexico can probably get three or four innings from Walker and give way to a solid bullpen.
Andres Munoz, the star closer from the Mariners, is the best reliever in Mexico's pen. They have three other regular MLB relievers in flamethrower Viktor Vodnik and southpaws Brennan Bernardino and Robert Garcia.
That righty/lefty balance will cause problems for Brazil's lineup.
Pick: Mexico -7.5
