The Texas GOP Senate primary is heading to a runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with prediction markets showing 59% odds that Paxton will emerge as the Republican nominee, according to the market on Kalshi trading at $0.59 per share.
The Kalshi market, which has seen over 350,000 contracts traded with significant open interest of 227,041 contracts, reflects the uncertainty surrounding what could be one of the most closely watched GOP primaries of the 2026 cycle. The current bid-ask spread sits tight at $0.38-$0.39 (38%-39%), indicating active trader interest in the outcome.
Neither candidate secured the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff in Tuesday's primary election, setting up a head-to-head battle that will test the strength of different factions within the Texas Republican Party. Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002, represents the establishment wing, while Paxton has cultivated strong support among Trump-aligned conservatives despite facing legal challenges.
If you want to get in on the action and make a prediction on who will represent the Republics in Texas' Senate race, Kalshi allows users in most of the 50 U.S. states to place predictions and win real money. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here and have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started.
Texas Senate Matchup Odds
The runoff election will likely focus on Trump endorsement dynamics, with both candidates seeking to position themselves as the more conservative choice in a state where Republican primary voters have increasingly favored outsider candidates over establishment figures in recent cycles. Cornyn would be entering his final term if he can beat Paxton, as he's seeking a fifth bid. His past criticisms of Trump have likely led the long-time Republican representative to be in hot water against a much more amenable presence in Paxton.
The prediction market data seemed to have correctly predicted an impressive win for James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett. Crockett underperformed virtually everywhere across Texas despite being well-respected for her ability to hold Republicans to the fire for false statements. Unfortunately for her, she gave up her House seat in order to run and failed to grab voters' support enough to win.
The Texas Supreme Court complicated vote counting in Dallas County with a recent order, potentially delaying final results. This uncertainty may be contributing to the active trading, as markets attempt to price in various scenarios while official results remain incomplete. That said, we expect Talarico to earn a decisive win on Wednesday as the votes are finalized.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most of the 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
