After a Frozen Frenzy of games, the lone game of Wednesday's NHL slate features the Toronto Maple Leafs visiting the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Blue Jackets are priced at +210 to cover the puck line (Blue Jackets -1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (-125o / +105u). The Blue Jackets are slight favorites at -115 to win outright, while the Leafs are priced at -105.
Let's get into my Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets prediction and NHL picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Odds, Pick
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -258 | 6.5 -130o / 110u | -105 |
| Blue Jackets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +210 | 6.5 -130o / 110u | -115 |
- Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-258), Blue Jackets -1.5 (+210)
- Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Over/Under: 6.5 (-130o/ +110u)
- Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Moneyline: Maple Leafs -105, Blue Jackets -115
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Preview
Toronto Maple Leafs
Relative to their preseason betting total of 99.5 points and last year's total of 108, the Leafs have not looked entirely convincing thus far.
In the 2024-25 season, their first under head coach Craig Berube, the Leafs allowed only 2.79 goals per game, the eighth-best mark in the NHL. The perception from mainstream media was that their hard-nosed, old-school bench boss, Berube, had cleaned up their defensive game and demanded greater attention to detail in key areas of the ice.
While it does seem fair to say that the Leafs may have done a better job of clearing out the front of the net last season under Berube than in seasons past, they were still spending a lot of time in the defensive zone and still gave up a fairly hefty share of chances.
Toronto allowed 3.28 xGA/60 and 28.85 shots against per 60 last season. They received fantastic play in goal from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll, who combined for a +42.6 GSAx rating and the fourth-best save percentage in the league last season.
The Leafs' control over the overall run of play has been even more concerning this season, as they hold an expected goal share of just 46.29% in even-strength play. Their blue line's greatest strength continues to be defending inside their own zone, but it has struggled to help drive play in the other direction.
If the Leafs aren't overly sharp defensively in this matchup, it could be a greater concern than usual, as third-string goaltender Cayden Primeau will be getting the start. Primeau played to a -9.5 GSAx rating and .836 save percentage last season and has struggled to an .875 save percentage in his first two starts this season.
Auston Matthews and William Nylander will both likely play at a higher level as the season wears on, but neither has been as dominant as we have typically seen early on in this campaign. The Leafs spent much of the money left by Mitch Marner's departure on upgrading their bottom six, but to this point those acquisitions have not been overly productive.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets honored the late Johnny Gaudreau with a season to be proud of last year, as they greatly outperformed expectations in finishing with 89 points, coming up just shy of a playoff berth.
Considering the strength of schedule the Blue Jackets have faced, it seems entirely possible that head coach Dean Evason's young side will take steps forward this year, given their strong play thus far.
The Blue Jackets currently rank third in expected goal share in even-strength play and have already beaten a pair of contenders in the Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning, while two of their losses have come versus the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils, who have been the NHL's two most impressive teams thus far.
2022 12th overall pick Denton Mateychuk's emergence as a viable option on the top pairing alongside Zach Werenski brings improved depth to the team defensively, which was a weakness last season. Several key young forwards, such as Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, and Kirill Marchenko, continue to offer sharper play defensively.
The Blue Jackets have allowed only 2.80 xGA/60 this season, which has given their goaltenders a much better chance of success than they had last year.
Chances are they will still be a fairly mediocre defensive team the rest of the way, but based on last year, they will likely be a fairly formidable side with even league-average defensive play based on their offensive upside. Especially if Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzlikins continue to offer strong play in goal, which has been the case so far.
Merzlikins holds a .915 save percentage and +3.3 GSAx in his first four starts of the year. Greaves doesn't look likely to relinquish the number-one role anytime soon, but Merzlikins is certainly offering Evason an excellent secondary option and could be an edge in spots like this where opponents are also starting a second or third stringer.
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Prediction
The Leafs entered the year with higher expectations than the Blue Jackets and were a much more formidable side last season. For those reasons, it may seem frightening to back the Blue Jackets as slight favorites in this matchup, but they’ve been in far better form this season.
Toronto's aging blue line has struggled to move the puck up the ice this season, which has made its overall attack somewhat stagnant. While Matthews and Nylander are, by a margin, the highest-end offensive skaters in this matchup, the Blue Jackets could help mitigate that concern with sharper overall team play.
And if the take that the Blue Jackets should carry more of the overall play tonight doesn't turn out, there is also the possibility that Primeau offers a very shaky start and is outperformed considerably by Merzlikins.
At -115, I'm happy to take a shot with an upstart young Blue Jackets side causing problems for a potentially overvalued Leafs outfit in this matchup.
Pick: Blue Jackets Moneyline (-115, bet365; Play to -122)
