The Montreal Canadiens (11-7-3) and Utah Mammoth (12-8-3) will face off in an inter-conference NHL matchup Wednesday evening. Puck drop is set for 9:30 p.m. EST at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Mammoth are priced at +175 to cover the puck-line (+175), with the over/under set at 6.5 (+100o / -120u). The Mammoth are -140 favorites to win outright, while the Canadiens are priced at +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Mammoth predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Mammoth Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 6.5 100o / -120u | +120 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 6.5 100o / -120u | -140 |
- Canadiens vs. Mammoth Spread: +1.5 (-210), -1.5 (+175)
- Canadiens vs. Mammoth Over/Under: 6.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Canadiens vs. Mammoth Moneyline: Canadiens +120, Utah -140
Canadiens vs. Mammoth Preview
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens managed to get right with a critical victory over the rival Toronto Maple Leafs on home ice Saturday evening, snapping a five-game losing skid in the process. The Leafs remained heavily shorthanded in that matchup, however, and have been arguably the worst team in the Eastern Conference this season. As a result, the Canadiens still have a lot to prove currently as they begin a tough three-game Western road swing in this matchup.
Over the last ten games, Montreal is just 3-4-3 with a -11 goal differential in that span. They also hold an expected goal percentage of just 46.95% in that span, and have allowed 3.41 xGA/60.
I was high on the Canadiens relative to oddsmakers' expectations this season, at least in the early part of the offseason when they were priced at +130 to make the playoffs. My greatest concern was whether or not head coach Martin St. Louis was the right bench boss to help the team learn to play a more tactically strong defensive game, after being one of the league's worst defensive teams last season.
While St. Louis is seemingly a tremendous motivator and a coach who is beloved by his players, he's not exactly proven capable of leading an NHL team to strong defensive results. He rightfully got a pass for his developing Canadiens side, allowing the seventh-most shots against per 60 and the fourth-highest xGA/60 last season.
The Canadiens looked more competent defensively to start this year, but as more teams are seemingly clicking into high gear, the Canadiens have allowed 4.30 goals against per game over the last ten matchups.
Another concern is that Montreal played an extremely soft schedule early on this season, and the lesser results have, unsurprisingly, come while facing a more standard slate of opponents.
Now, a major reason that the Canadiens have struggled recently is that goaltenders Jakub Dobes and Samuel Montembeault have not been overly sharp, but that goes back to the greater point here. Dobes and Montembeault were both fantastic last year, which helped mask the team's shaky defensive play.
Now that the team's goaltending has not been as sharp, it's becoming more apparent that their defensive play is an issue.
It also hasn't helped matters that the team is currently without two middle-six centers, being Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook, leaving a fairly unconvincing quarter at the critical center ice position.
Dobes has been confirmed as the Canadiens' starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +1.6 GSAx rating despite owning an .895 save percentage this season, which illustrates the tough shot quality that he has faced on average.
Utah Mammoth
Like the Canadiens, the Mammoth have played to a record of 3-4-3 over their last ten games, which actually includes a 6-2 loss in Montreal on November 8th.
Those notes may not make the Mammoth sound very appealing at -140, but there is a pretty strong case that they look to be a much more formidable side than Montreal currently, despite the comparable recent results.
Utah holds a 50.56% expected goal share at even strength across its last 15 games, and head coach Andre Tourigny's side has generally looked fundamentally sharp in all facets of the game.
The team does have a distinct lack of offensive depth relative to true contenders, but it has the talent inside the top six to match Montreal in that regard and has looked much more organized defensively of late.
The Mammoth are set to get a key piece back in the lineup on Wednesday, as strong puck-moving defenseman Sean Durzi is set to return after missing the vast majority of the season.
And for what it's worth, the Mammoth have appeared to have a noteworthy home ice advantage this season, playing to a record of 7-2-1 at the Delta Center.
Karel Vejmelka is expected to start in goal for the Mammoth in this matchup. Vejmelka was fantastic last season in playing to a +14.2 GSAx rating in 58 appearances, and has had a solid start to this campaign with a +2.0 GSAx in 17 appearances.
Canadiens vs. Mammoth Prediction
The Mammoth have been tremendous on home ice this season and should have a good chance of following up a convincing win over a strong Vegas Golden Knights side in this matchup.
Utah continues to receive steady play in goal from Vejmelka while offering accountable defensive play, and has some potent scorers littered in the top six, who should be able to expose the Canadiens' shaky defensive play in this matchup.
As someone who was high on the Canadiens in the offseason and wrote about why backing them to make the playoffs at +130 was a great play, what we have seen recently is quite concerning. Their defensive play looked moderately improved early on, but as we have seen them play against more competent offenses of late, their defensive play has been quite concerning.
Dobes will likely face a strenuous workload in this matchup, and that is concerning, as he has been out of form recently. Even given my belief that Dobes is better than we have seen lately, I'm still happy to lay -140 backing the Mammoth on home ice in this matchup.
Pick: Utah Mammoth Moneyline -140 (Bet365, Play to -145)
