The Detroit Red Wings (30-16-4) and Toronto Maple Leafs (24-17-8) face off in an exciting Metropolitan Division matchup on Wednesday. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Leafs are priced at +210 to cover the -1.5 puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (O +105/U -125). The Leafs are slight favorites to win outright (-120), while the Red Wings are priced at +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Odds, Pick
| Red Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -260 | 6.5 105o / -125u | +100 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +210 | 6.5 105o / -125u | -120 |
- Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Spread: Red Wings +1.5 (-260), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+210)
- Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Over/Under: 6.5 (O +105 /U -125)
- Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Moneyline: Red Wings +100, Maple Leafs -120
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Preview
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings entered the season priced at +250 to make the playoffs, with a betting total of 84.5 points. With a record of 7-1-2 over the last ten games, they appear to be a safe bet to snap a nine-year playoff drought despite playing out of an extremely competitive Atlantic Division.
Detroit has gotten off to strong starts in each of the previous two seasons, only to fall apart down the stretch. It was 26-21-5 at the start of February last season, before ultimately missing the playoffs by five points.
Aside from the Red Wings' points percentage of .640, they seem much more legitimate than in years past, having taken significant steps forward defensively. For years, we have been hearing about Detroit's high-end defensive prospects, and head coach Todd McLellan has offered several of those skaters significant roles, compared to last season when blue-liners, well past their prime, were hampering the unit's effectiveness.
Over the last 10 games, the Red Wings hold a 49.41% expected goal share at even strength and have allowed 3.33 xGA/60 (tenth best). Those marks suggest that their chance generation has fallen off somewhat, but they are still defending at a fairly high level.
McLellan has shuffled his offensive units a little bit compared to what we have typically seen over the last 10 games, and based on Tuesday's practice, Marco Kasper will skate on the top line in the role previously occupied by James Van Riemsdyk.
Kasper hasn't taken steps forward as would have been expected this season following his strong finish to the 2024-25 season, but Kasper, Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin did form an effective unit when together last season.
The trio held a 54.5% expected goal share and generated 3.30 xGF/60 across 272.7 minutes of play, and Kasper put up 17 goals and 30 points in the final 42 games of the season (second half).
John Gibson has been confirmed as the Red Wings' starting goaltender for this matchup. Gibson holds a .902 save percentage and +6.1 GSAx rating. After a poor start to the year, Gibson has found his footing with his new side in playing to a .932 save percentage and 1.93 GAA across his last 15 starts, and Detroit is 13-2-0 in those games.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs have seven games left to play before the Olympic break, and it's a critical stretch that will likely determine how GM Brad Treliving approaches the trade deadline. Toronto is 10-6-4 over the last 20 games, but has not made up much ground in the playoff race, particularly since the majority of the Atlantic Division has been on fire in the same span.
From an analytical perspective, Toronto's game has still not been overly impressive during its 10-6-4 run, as it holds a 45.8% expected goal share and allowed 31.56 shots against per 60, the highest mark in the league.
Head coach Craig Berube's defensive systems are designed to prevent true defensive breakdowns by leaning on safe plays and accepting slightly less possession as a result, but even if the public expected goal models are slightly unfavorable to the type of chances the Leafs are actually allowing, it's still tough to argue that it has been overly sharp defensively.
The Leafs' power play has been dominant since it relieved former assistant coach Marc Savard of his duties. Since Steve Sullivan was appointed as assistant coach on December 26th, Toronto's power play has succeeded on 30% of its opportunities. The Leafs have strayed away from what had become a very stagnant 1-3-1 look and made some adjustments, leading to smoother zone entries.
Toronto's chance generation at even strength has been a concern recently; however, and it could be due for some offensive regression. In 13 games since the holiday break, the Leafs have generated only 2.51 xGF/60 but rank third in shooting percentage, which has masked that concern.
The Leafs are expected to remain without William Nylander in Wednesday's matchup, who has looked to be the most dynamic Leafs skater once again this season in generating 48 points across 37 games.
Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the Leafs' starting goaltender for this matchup. Woll has played to a .910 save percentage and -0.1 GSAx rating across 20 appearances this season.
Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
It's fairly unpleasant backing an under in a game involving the Maple Leafs right now, given their defensive play has been unconvincing, and they have been able to win in spite of it, thanks to some clinical finishing and a dominant power play.
Still, a total of 6.5 seems fairly high considering the metrics both of these two sides have illustrated recently and the excellent form of Gibson over the last 15 games. The Red Wings aren't generating a ton of chances at even strength recently, and Toronto's recent offensive process has been propped up by a sky-high shooting percentage.
On Saturday, I outlined my belief that backing the Leafs' matchup versus the Winnipeg Jets to go over 5.5 goals was a good bet, and the game did sneak over thanks to a late push from the Leafs. However, that game featured a total of 5.5, and the Jets actually present as a higher-event team currently than the Red Wings do.
At -124, there looks to be some value in betting the under, which will surely be somewhat of a contrarian play based on the high-scoring games these two teams have played of late.
I'll also be keeping my eyes out for Kasper's point prop, and I would play it if it is ultimately available at north of +120.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals -124 (-125, bet365)
