The Columbus Blue Jackets (18-16-7) and San Jose Sharks (20-18-3) meet in the NHL Tuesday evening. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EST at SAP Center at San Jose in San Jose, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Blue Jackets are priced at +190 to cover the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (O -125/U +105). The Blue Jackets are priced at -125 favorite to win outright, while the Sharks are priced at +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Blue Jackets vs. Sharks predictions and NHL picks.
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Odds, Pick
| Blue Jackets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -118o / +105u | -125 |
| Sharks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 6.5 -118o / +105u | +105 |
- Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Spread: Blue Jackets -1.5 (+190), Sharks +1.5 (-230)
- Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Over/Under: 6.5 (O -125 /U +105)
- Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Moneyline: Blue Jackets -125, Sharks +105
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Preview
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Eastern Conference is undoubtedly a much deeper bracket than the Western Conference this season, and the fact that the Blue Jackets rank second-to-last in Eastern Conference points percentage is a clear testament to that.
Columbus finished just two points shy of a playoff berth last season with a 40-33-9 record, and despite its current position in the standings, it does not appear that this young group has truly regressed. While the Blue Jackets have struggled to close out games, they have generally looked well organized, and it’s not surprising to see them rank 11th in expected goal share at even strength this season.
Entering this matchup, the Blue Jackets and Sharks hold identical points percentages (.524). Given that Columbus has achieved that mark while competing in the deep Metropolitan Division — while San Jose plays in the weaker Pacific — it’s no surprise oddsmakers power-rate the Blue Jackets higher, installing them as road favorites here.
There have been some clear disappointments on the Columbus roster. Kent Johnson appears to have lost confidence after a breakout campaign last season, Dante Fabbro has taken a step back in terms of on-ice chance impacts, and Sean Monahan has struggled while reportedly playing through multiple injuries.
Still, the Blue Jackets boast an excellent top pairing in Zach Werenski and Denton Mateychuk, a strong top line of Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli and Mason Marchment, and have received roughly break-even play from their second defensive pairing and middle-six forwards.
Monahan missed Sunday’s game and is listed as day-to-day, but given his struggles this season, his absence is manageable. Columbus’ depth advantage is further amplified by the fact that San Jose will be without Will Smith, John Klingberg, Adam Gaudette and Shakir Mukhamadullin.
One concern when backing the Blue Jackets is the potential goaltending situation. Elvis Merzlikins could get the start instead of Jet Greaves. Greaves has been rock-solid this season, posting a +9.9 GSAx and a .910 save percentage, while Merzlikins has struggled to a -7.4 GSAx and an .877 save percentage after being outperformed by Greaves last year.
San Jose Sharks
Whether the Sharks win this game or not, it’s fairly easy to argue that if the Blue Jackets were placed in the Pacific Division, they would likely be holding down a playoff spot. San Jose owns a much worse goal differential at -19 and ranks 19 spots lower than Columbus in expected goal share.
As noted, the two sides still hold the same points percentage, despite the fact that the Sharks play in a Pacific Division in which not a single team owns a positive goal differential. In fact, the Buffalo Sabres — currently outside of a playoff position — are tied with the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights in points percentage, which highlights the overall weakness of the division.
Macklin Celebrini has been downright incredible, and the Blue Jackets don’t roster a forward of that caliber. However, as expected, the Sharks’ lack of depth has been a persistent issue this season.
San Jose has scored 7.04 goals above expectation this year. Celebrini is an elite playmaker, and some of his impact may not be fully captured by expected-goals models, but it remains concerning that the Sharks’ goal differential is as poor as it is despite finishing chances at an above-average rate.
Over the last month, the Sharks have posted a 50.2% expected goal share, showing some improvement in their overall play. Still, it’s difficult to envision them looking as competitive in the Eastern Conference, and on paper their defensive core and forward depth remain notable weaknesses.
Yaroslav Askarov is expected to make his 28th appearance of the season in this matchup. He holds a .895 save percentage and a 3.46 goals-against average, though those surface-level numbers are undoubtedly impacted by the volume of unpressured shots San Jose continues to allow in high-danger areas under head coach Ryan Warsofsky.
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Prediction
The Blue Jackets will be playing for the third time in four nights, facing a rested home side that has played just twice since last Tuesday. From a situational perspective, this spot does favor the Sharks, and that does raise some concern regarding a bet on Columbus here.
Still, the Blue Jackets appear to be the much deeper team and have controlled play more effectively over the course of the season. Barring a few ugly collapses, such as what we saw Sunday against the Penguins, Columbus would currently be sitting in a playoff spot in the ultra-competitive Eastern Conference, and Dean Evason’s group still looks like a team that believes it can stay in the mix.
The task becomes more difficult on the road without last change, but between Zach Werenski’s pairing and Kirill Marchenko’s line, the Blue Jackets should have a reasonable chance of keeping Macklin Celebrini’s unit somewhat in check. If they can limit Celebrini from producing another big night, Columbus should be in a solid position to win this matchup.
I bet the Blue Jackets early at -125, believing they were undervalued at that price. Given that the market has held firm at -125, my read may have been slightly off. At this point, it could be worth waiting to see if Elvis Merzlikins gets the start, which would likely push Columbus closer to the -115 range.
Pick: Blue Jackets Moneyline (Play to -135 if Greaves starts, Play -125 if Merzlikins starts)
