The Washington Commanders (3-9) and Minnesota Vikings (4-8) meet today in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Min. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Commanders are 1.5-point favorites over the Vikings on the spread (Commanders -1.5; -102), with the over/under set at 43.5 (-118o / -102u). Washington is a -120 moneyline favorite; Minnesota is +100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Commanders vs Vikings predictions for Sunday, December 7.
Commanders vs Vikings Prediction, Picks
- Commanders vs Vikings pick: Vikings +1.5; bet to +1
My Vikings vs Commanders best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Vikings Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 43.5 -118o / -102u | -120 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 43.5 -118o / -102u | +100 |
Commanders vs Vikings Preview Prediction
Unfortunately, I'm backing J.J. McCarthy today as he makes his return from concussion protocol.
Can McCarthy complete wide open passes? That remains to be seen, but he will have ample opportunities to do so against a Commanders defense that can't generate any pressure and ranks last in the NFL in drop back EPA.
The Commanders have played a bit better on that side of the ball since head coach Dan Quinn took over play-calling duties, but it's still a unit that has suffered major injuries and is extremely deficient in talent and speed.
It's possible Washington comes out flat after a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.
This will also mark the Commanders' first road game in over 40 days in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL.
I believe we've reached the bottom of the market on the Vikings, who just completed one of the most vicious seven-game stretches of the season.
Just take a look at who Minnesota has faced since coming out of its Week 6 bye with a 3-2 record:
- vs. Eagles (L)
- at Chargers (L)
- at Lions (W)
- vs. Ravens (L)
- vs. Bears (L)
- at Packers (L)
- at Seahawks (L)
All seven of those teams may make the NFL playoffs; the Vikings could've easily gone 3-4 if not for red-zone failures against the Eagles and a late kickoff return by the Bears in two close losses.
The Vikings did win at Detroit with McCarthy at the helm.
Most recently, the Vikings were shutout in Seattle in a game where rookie Max Brosmer had a disastrous four-interception first start.
Even in that contest, Minnesota had a chance to take the lead late in the first half before Brosmer threw an inexplicable pick-6 on fourth-and-goal that flipped the entire game.
Minnesota has also dealt with significant offensive line issues all season long, with its original starting five only playing together in one game this entire season.
However, things are trending in the right direction health-wise up front, so there's a decent chance they have all five today.
That could help spark even more explosive runs (top-5 in that department) against a Washington defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in chunk rushes allowed.
On the other side of the ball, this is still a very formidable Vikings defense under coordinator Brian Flores.
They are also as healthy as they've been all season with star pass rusher Jonathan Greenard set to return following a two-game absence.
We know Flores will bring the blitz (highest rate in the league to date), which could cause plenty of trouble for Jayden Daniels, who will return to action for the first time since Week 9.
This will not an easy defense to face on the road following an extended absence for a quarterback that ranks 33rd out of 37 QBs (minimum 50 drop backs) in Adjusted Completion % against the blitz with a sky-high turnover worthy play rate.
Conversely, backup Marcus Mariota has excelled against the blitz in part due to getting the ball out much quicker.
While I'm not suggesting Mariota is a better quarterback than Daniels, the former Oregon star has had the better overall season.
Daniels has endured a sophomore slump and has really never found rhythm with a constantly rotating cast of wide receivers.
While Washington has gotten healthier on the outside, it may take some time for Daniels to get going again.
Amazingly, Daniels and Mariota have played the same number of plays (251) this season. Here are their respective rankings in a few categories:
- EPA+CPOE composite: Mariota 12th vs. Daniels 18th
- Adjusted EPA per Play: Mariota 14th vs. Daniels 21st
- Success Rate: Mariota 12th vs. Daniels 16th
- Air Yards: Mariota 1st vs. Daniels 16th
- Passer Rating vs. blitz: Mariota 12th vs. Daniels 26th
Not only has Mariota been more efficient and better against the blitz, he's also been more willing to throw the ball deep with a 15% deep-ball rate compared to Daniels' 11%, which is how you want to attack Minnesota's aggressive defense.
Commanders vs Vikings Predictions, Analysis
Betting on JJ McCarthy as a favorite… what could possibly go wrong? A lot, quite frankly.
Ultimately, Minnesota should generate exponentially more pressure, leading to a number of drive-killing plays, while it will also have plenty of opportunities to hit easy chunk plays on the ground and through the air.
As long as McCarthy isn't completely abysmal (which is possible), I like the Vikings to pull out the victory at home.
It will certainly help that the Commanders can't get any pressure and have significantly cut down their blitz rates since Dan Quinn took over, as McCarthy has been a downright disaster when under pressure and against the blitz.
Notable Trend: I like to back teams coming off a shutout loss, which can signal a buy-low opportunity in the betting market. Since 2003, teams have covered at a 57% clip after getting shutout, including a gaudy 48-29-3 ATS (62.3%) mark as an underdog, covering by 2.2 points per game on average.
Commanders vs Vikings Best Bet
- Vikings +1.5; bet to +1
Commanders vs Vikings Betting Trends
Commanders vs Vikings Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Min. |
| Date: | Sunday, Dec. 7 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
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