We'll end an exciting day of NFL football with my Cowboys vs. Buccaneers player prop.
Cooper Rush and the Cowboys are 4-point home underdogs to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, but I'm betting on at least one Cowboy to have a productive outing on Sunday Night Football.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Player Prop: Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle has been on fire of late, rushing for 100+ yards in three straight games.
But while he's made his money on the ground, I think this is a good time to buy low on his receptions prop after he only caught one pass over the last two games.
Despite not being as involved in the passing game, he set a season high in routes run rate in back-to-back games with a 63% routes run rate in Week 15 and a 70% rate last week.
However, the Cowboys didn't need to drop back to pass as much last week in a convincing 30-14 win over the Panthers. Dallas is a 4-point underdog in this one, so the Cowboys could be forced into a more pass-heavy game script.
It's also an ideal matchup for Dowdle, as the Bucs use Zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate. Dowdle's target rate goes up from 7.5% against Man to 26% against Zone.
The Bucs also rank 30th in DVOA against RBs in the pass game and have allowed 14 different RBs to clear this number.
I have Dowdle closer to 3.1 receptions and a 60% chance he becomes the 15th RB to catch 3+ passes against the Bucs.
