My picks were 2-1-1 last week in this column, with Jaguars -3 pushing. I have a few more NFL predictions this week, though, starting with two bets for our second NFL London game of the season. I'm on three underdogs and an over on Drake Maye as he makes the first start of his career.
I'm 21-10 (up 8.03 units) over the last 30 days, so this has been another great start to the NFL season.
The Texans are getting 82% of bets and 81% of the money, according to our Public Betting page, but that’s not stopping me from fading them on the road. The other biggest game in terms of money percentage is Buccaneers vs. Saints, with 82% of the money coming in on Tampa Bay. That’s not stopping me from taking the other side, though.
Let's get into my NFL predictions for Week 6's Sunday slate. Let's get that shmoney!
NFL Week 6 Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 a.m. | |
| 9:30 a.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chargers vs. Broncos Bet: Play This Home 'Dog
This line is saying the Chargers are 4.5-5 points better than Denver on a neutral field. Even with the Chargers getting healthier coming off the bye, that’s a big number.
Even when the offense was healthy, it was pretty underwhelming. Herbert averaged 5.5 yards per attempt against the Raiders while the offense put up 22 points. Nix averaged 7.4 against that same Raiders defense, with his offense putting up 27. Herbert averaged 6.5 yards per attempt against Carolina, while every other opponent the Panthers have faced averaged at least 7.4.
Defensively, both of these teams are ranked in the top five in DVOA, but the Chargers carry more asterisks with that ranking. While the Broncos rank third in pressure rate (31.6%), according to Pro Football Reference, the Chargers rank 29th (15.9%). The Chargers are also 31st in completion rate allowed league at 72.4% while the Broncos are slightly above-average (65.0%, 15th).
Most importantly, the Broncos defense is fully healthy while the Chargers will be without two of their three starting corners in Asante Samuel Jr. (shoulder) and Ja’Sir Taylor (leg). It’s also concerning for the Chargers that despite coming off a bye, edge rusher Joey Bosa (hip) was only able practice once all week and is still listed as questionable on the final injury report.
In theory, the Chargers should have the better offense in this game, but Herbert has been a sub-7.0-yards-per-attempt passer since 2022 and hasn’t shown much in this new run-heavy offense. Speaking of which, the Chargers are 30th in early-down rushing success rate on offense (30.2%) according to RBsdm.com, and may now have to work in an inexperienced Hassan Haskins or Kimani Vidal behind J.K. Dobbins with Gus Edwards (ankle) ruled out. Meanwhile, the Broncos run game has finally started to click and is up to eighth in rushing success rate (41.0%).
According to our Action Labs data, Sean Payton is 52-35, coving by 3.2 points per game on average.
Bet to: +2
Pick: Broncos +3 (-115)
Lions vs. Cowboys Player Prop: Bet KaVontae Turpin's Under
KaVontae Turpin averages 1.50 career yards per route run, so last week’s 50 yards on 15 routes was fluky, especially considering he had an average depth of target of 3.4.
Although Turpin popped for a big week in the first game without Brandin Cooks (injured reserve, knee), he was the clear No. 4 wide receiver with a 29% snap rate, behind Jalen Tolbert (89%), CeeDee Lamb 97%) and Jalen Brooks (49%).
That is unlikely to change given Turpin’s role on special teams. He has also cracked 30 yards just three times in 38 career games.
Bet to: 24.5
Pick: KaVontae Turpin Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Jaguars vs. Bears Over/Under Pick
It was a nice run for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars against the Colts practice squad last week, but now he faces a real defense again.
Even without safety Jaquan Brisker (concussion) ruled out and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (calf) doubtful, the Bears still have studs in the secondary in cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who was the best cornerback in the league last year and ranks third out of 101 qualifiers in PFF’s grading through five weeks this season, and safety Kevin Byard, who is back to his All-Pro self with an 859 PFF grade, third among 80 qualified safeties.
On the year, the Bears defense ranks No. 2 in Pass DVOA. Lawrence went 28-of-34 (82.4%) for 371 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. Against all other defenses, he’s completing 53.2% of passes for 182.3 passing yards and 1.0 passing TDs per game.
Meanwhile, after facing two defenses that were terrible in both facets in the Rams and Panthers, the Bears get to face a Jaguars defense that is only terrible in one facet — Jacksonville does rank 11th against the run.
In Weeks 1-3, the Bears averaged just 72.7 rushing yards and 17.7 points per game. Over the last two weeks, the Bears averaged 129.5 rushing yards and 30.0 points per game. Caleb Williams is still completing just 625.9% of his passes at 6.4 YPA while taking sacks on nearly 10% of his dropbacks. Without a running game, Chicago won’t be able to churn out scoring drives as consistently as it has the past two weeks, when they scored on 10-of-22 drives (45.4%).
Our Luck Rankings also indicate that these teams have combined to score 5.0 points per game over expectations. Playing at 9 a.m. ET overseas is a good bet to bring reversion to the mean. Per our Action Labs data, early morning games are 16-10 (62%) to the under, covering by two points per game.
Bet to: 43.5
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
Christian Kirk Player Prop for NFL London
Christian Kirk caught only four of Lawrence’s 28 completions against the Colts last week (14.3%). The Bears play a similar Cover 3 scheme, except they are No. 2 in pass-defense DVOA while the Colts are 24th.
Kirk only has 12.0% of the Jaguars’ targets against Cover 3. On the season, he has registered not just four or fewer receptions, but four or fewer targets, in three of his five games. The expected return of tight end Evan Engram (questionable, hamstring) creates more competition for slot/underneath targets.
Bet to: -199
Pick: Christian Kirk Under 4.5 Receptions (-150)
Chris Raybon's Texans vs. Patriots Prediction
Despite a 4-1 record, it’s been a struggle for the Texans. They haven’t won by more than six points all season. Houston also ranks 31st in early-down success rate (37.0%) behind the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots (39.6%, 26th) and ahead of only the Cleveland Browns (33.6%) — and that was with Nico Collins in the lineup.
Without Collins, it will be even more difficult for the Texans to win by a substantial margin. He's their most explosive player and is sitting on a league-leading 567 receiving yards entering Week 6 and is averaging of 17.7 yards per reception and 12.6 yards per target. This season, C.J. Stroud is averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt and a 2.9% TD rate when not throwing to Collins, who has accounted for 33% of Stroud’s career yardage.
The uncertainty surrounding Drake Maye is what you want when backing a large 'dog against a superior team. Maye’s scrambling prowess and ability to make off-platform throws under pressure gives the Patriots offense upside it simply didn’t possess with Brissett.
According to PFF, Maye ranked fourth of 44 qualified passers in the 2023 draft class with a 66.5 grade under pressure. He brings a lot more escapability and scrambling ability than Brissett. (His rushing prop is set at 25.5, while Brissett has averaged 10.2 rushing yards per game).
Maye’s life also will be made easier by the absences of two key players in the Houston secondary: cornerback Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and safety Jimmie Ward (groin).
And even if Maye completely flops, Houston is no guarantee to cover. The Texans haven’t won by more than six all year despite opposing passers struggling against them.
- In Week 1, Houston beat the Colts by only two points despite holding Anthony Richardson to 9-of-19 passing for 212 yards.
- In Week 2, the Texans beat the Bears by only six points despite holding Caleb Williams to 134 net passing yards on 44 dropbacks.
- Last week, they needed a last second 59-yard field goal to secure a 3-point win against the Bills despite holding Josh Allen to 131 yards on 9-of-30 passing.
The Texans clock in as the luckiest team in our Luck Rankings while the Patriots are 26th, a 25-spot differential. Historically, unlucky teams with a differential of 24 or more spots have gone 122-69-6 (63.5%) ATS.
Bet to: +6
Pick: Patriots +6.5 (+104)
Bet This Drake Maye Player Prop
Since 2018, 52 of 74 quarterbacks making their first start threw for at least 170 yards. Top-10 picks over that span did so 80% of the time, with each of those passers throwing for at least 180 yards.
The Texans were great last week against Josh Allen and the Bills, as I expected, allowing only 131 yards, but they’ve still given up 169 or more in every other matchup and will be without two starters in the secondary in Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) and Jimmie Ward (groin).
Bet to: 168.5
Pick: Drake Maye Over 161.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Chris Raybon's Buccaneers-Saints Pick
This line was -2.5 before Derek Carr got injured, meaning it has moved a full six points. While there will obviously be a big drop-off from the veteran Carr to fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattle making his first start, six points is drastic, especially considering it went through the key number of -3.
Despite dropping to the fifth round, Rattler is one of the more intriguing prospects in this class. There’s a reason the Saints are tapping him to start over Carr’s in-game backup Jake Haener. If nothing else, Rattler's mobility gives the offense a dimension it lacked under Carr.
Carr was also reverting too much to his tendencies from last season, chucking too many low-percentage deep shots toward the sideline. Rattler is more likely to take what defense gives him, which is a good thing against a Bucs unit that got picked apart for 509 yards by Kirk Cousins last week despite Cousins only completing three passes that traveled 20-plus yards in the air.
As far as rookies making their first start go, Rattler enters into a pretty favorable situation. The Saints are at home, where they have one of the better advantages, and they rank No. 4 in overall DVOA through five weeks.
New Orleans' defense should be able to keep them in the game. The Saints have allowed only one passing touchdowns with seven interceptions and rank fifth in ANYA (4.8). They are also seventh in pressure rate, and Mayfield’s yards per attempt average goes from 8.1 when kept clean to 5.5 under pressure. New Orleans also ranks No. 1 in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, and Marhson Lattimore has always given Mike Evans fits.
The Saints are only the second top-10 defense the Bucs will have faced. The Bucs played four games against defenses ranked 15th, 20th, 24th and 27th, and they averaged 30.0 points and 346.5 yards. The one top-10 defense Tampa Bay faced was Denver, and the Bucs scored only seven points and gained 223 yards of total offense despite playing at home.
Per our Action Labs data. Mayfield is 15-27-1 (36%) ATS as a favorite, failing to cover by 3.1 points per game.
Bet to: +3
Pick: Saints +3.5 (-115)
