Week 11 is shaping up to potentially be the best week of the NFL season.
There are four huge games on the slate, one of them already in the books after Philadelphia came back to beat Washington on Thursday night to take a commanding leading in the NFC East. The other three come Sunday, one in each window, and I wrote a preview of each and how to bet futures accordingly.
I've already made NFL predictions for two of those games — Bengals +2.5 over the Chargers and Steelers +3.5 over the Ravens on the Sunday night Hot Read — and we'll talk about both those games below, plus a full blowout preview of the huge Chiefs-Bills games with 11 picks for that game in honor of Week 11.
We're up just over 15 units on the season, so let's keep it rolling and get to my NFL picks for this week.
NFL Week 11 Predictions, Parlays, Picks
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NFL Week 11 Predictions, Parlays, Picks
Jaguars vs. Lions Pick Against the Spread
I don't have to tell you the Lions are way better than the Jaguars.
Jacksonville ranks dead last by DVOA in pass defense and second to last overall defensively. Ben Johnson's offense can probably name its number here and should pass all over this squad.
The Jaguars offense has cratered too. Trevor Lawrence is out, and Mac Jones looked as bad last week as he did before getting cut by New England. Detroit's defensive metrics have somehow improved without Aidan Hutchinson, and the Jaguars can barely even move the ball lately.
It may look like this Jacksonville squad is hanging in there after back-to-back five point losses to the Eagles and Vikings, but those were blowouts disguised as fluky fake-close games. Jacksonville had only 358 yards of offense combined!
The Lions have faced only two truly bad teams this season by the advanced metrics, and they murdered both of them: 47-9 against the Cowboys and 52-14 against the Titans. Detroit had six wins last season by at least 12 points. This team takes care of business against inferior opponents.
The Jaguars have already allowed 28+ points five times, and the Lions have scored 30+ four times, three of them at 42 or more points. This could get ugly, so I have no problem at all playing the long spread.
You probably know big underdogs have fared well this season — but only so big. Double-digit favorites are 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 14 points per game.
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are typically good as favorites and in the early kickoff window, and Goff remains elite playing indoors with the Lions at 30-10 ATS. That's a 75% cover rate, and as a favorite of at least four in that spot he's 12-1 ATS, covering by almost a full touchdown.
The Lions are just in another league altogether, and this game could leave Doug Pederson pretty uncomfortable Monday morning if this thing goes south.
The Jaguars head into the bye and play the Texans next, so I also love playing the Jaguars under 5.5 win total here (+125 FanDuel) since two losses are coming next.
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Browns vs. Saints Spread Prediction
This game may not have as much pop as the rest of the slate, but the wrong team is favored here.
The Saints beat the Falcons last week in interim coach Rizzi's debut, but New Orleans was badly outplayed and should've lost comfortably if not for a barrage of field goal misses and Atlanta mistakes. That 2-0 start is long ago — the Saints have been one of the league's worst teams for two months.
The Browns are quietly trending in the opposite direction.
That win over the Ravens wasn't a fluke. This is not the team it was to start the season, on offense in particular. Jameis Winston is a marked improvement at QB, and the simultaneous change to Ken Dorsey as play caller has done wonders for this offense and should only be much better now after a bye week to settle in. Nick Chubb gets two weeks less rusty too, and the offensive line even healthier. The Browns want to run and New Orleans is one of the worst run defenses in the league.
Cleveland's defense is trending up too, in part because it helps to defend when you're not at the mercy of the league's worst offense and playing in a hole all game. The Browns still get a ton of pressure on the quarterback, and the Saints offensive line is banged up. Derek Carr should be under pressure all game, and that rarely ends well.
Carr is 22-39-2 ATS as a favorite in his career (36%), though I suspect he'll end up closing as a dog here. He's 23-34-1 ATS against teams below .500 (40%). This is not the spot to back Derek Carr.
Jameis Winston fares much better as an underdog, and the Dawg Pound may be barking. With a good defense and improving offense, I rate the Browns relatively similar to teams like the Steelers, Vikings, and Broncos — playoff contenders more than capable of beating the dregs of the league. Cleveland's postseason dreams are long gone, but the Browns are much better than the Saints.
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Ravens vs. Steelers Spread Pick
I already bet this Sunday on the Hot Read but I'm making the case again here to reiterate one of my favorite trend spots of the year.
This is a prime Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot.
Tomlin's guys just find a way as an underdog. From Week 5 forward, Tomlin is 48-20-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, a remarkable 71% cover rate. That trend is even stronger when Pittsburgh is at home (81% ATS) or playing a division game (81% ATS), as they are here.
The trend is typically better after a big loss — Pittsburgh edged the Commanders by a point last week — but also 20-7-2 ATS (74%) as anything worse than three-point favorites after covering in a Rah Rah underdog spot like they did in Washington.
Tomlin is 58% ATS in his career against teams above .500, and John Harbaugh is just 42% ATS as a division favorite. Lamar Jackson is 15-29-1 ATS (34%) as a favorite of between three and 10 points.
But none of those even touch perhaps my favorite trend in football: always take the underdog when Tomlin and Harbaugh face off.
The underdog in Tomlin vs. Harbaugh is an incredible 23-6-3 ATS, covering 79% of the time. When either team is favored by three or more, the dogs are 18-2-3 ATS, a 90% cover rate. Harbaugh's Ravens have never covered against the Steelers as favorites of three or more.
Believe it or not, Lamar Jackson has only one career win against the Steelers. He has just four touchdowns in his entire career against Pittsburgh, passing and rushing combined, against seven interceptions, seven fumbles, and 20 sacks. The Steel Curtain has found ways to keep Jackson in check and just spent last week preparing for and limiting a similar style QB in Jayden Daniels.
Baltimore is the much better team, but its pass defense is vulnerable to explosive plays and Russell Wilson can hit some of those moon balls and keep Pittsburgh in this.
I bet Steelers +3.5 and there's still a couple 3.5s in the market, but you can play at +3 as necessary too.
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Colts vs. Jets: Jonathan Taylor Player Prop
The Jets are somehow favored yet again, despite all evidence to the contrary the first 10 weeks. These are two relatively blah teams with somewhat similar profiles, but the Colts have been a bit better and now turn back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
I don't trust Richardson enough to back him on the road outright, but I do trust him to help us with the one matchup that tilts heavily in the Colts' favor here. The Jets have been hammered in the run game this season, both ways. New York can't run the ball and it can't stop the run either, bottom six by DVOA in both directions.
The one real strength for either team in this game is Indy's rushing attack behind one of the best lines in the league, and that attack gets even better with the threat of Richardson next to Jonathan Taylor. So let's skip Colts +4 and go straight to the edge with Taylor rushing props.
The Jets have seen 20+ carries by a RB in four of their last five games. I expect that here from Taylor, and at nearly 5 YPC, he should push for 100 yards. New York has only faced two top-12 rushing attacks by DVOA this season like the Colts, and it allowed big games to Jordan Mason (28/147) and Ray Davis (20/97), two backups, in those matchups.
Taylor averages more than 10 YPG in games with Richardson instead of Flacco, despite those coming against a tougher stretch of opponents including Pittsburgh and twice against Houston. He has at least 88 rushing yards in four of five Richardson starts.
Some books have this line around 81.5 yards, and I'm fine with that if you want the surer win. Others have the line as high as 85.5 or 86.5. At that point, I'll pivot to 100+ yards for more than double the payout at +210 (Caesars).
This is also a great moment to nibble Taylor as the season-long rushing yards leader at +10000 (BetRivers). He comes at a discount after missing some time, and we'll need both Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley to fall off quickly, but Taylor has as good a shot as anyone after those two so 100-1 is badly mispriced.
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Packers vs. Bears: Josh Jacobs Rushing Prop
Suffice to say the Chicago Bears are in free fall.
Chicago's offense has cratered and can't block to save its life, and Thomas Browns will call the plays after OC Shane Waldron was fired this week.
Perhaps that portends something of a fired-coach dead cat bounce, and the line here is certainly a heap of points for a home division underdog in a rivalry game, but does this even count as a rivalry? The Packers have won 10 straight against the Bears and 25 of the last 28.
Green Bay is coming off an important bye week, which should help Jordan Love play at near full health for the first time since Opening Night, but Chicago's pass defense remains near top five in the league. It's the Bears run defense that's faltering badly, third to last by DVOA, and that's how we're attacking.
Josh Jacobs and the Packers have run the ball well all season and should control the game on the ground, especially in what looks like a windy, blustery game in the Windy City.
The Bears have allowed at least 65 rushing yards to the opposing RB1 in all but two of their nine games, and those two misses were bad Texans and Jaguars rushing attacks where the RB1 got hurt in game. That's a pretty high floor that already gets us close to the number we need here, and five of those seven healthy RB1s ran for at least 82 yards.
No escalators or alts for me on this one. This line is ticking up a touch, but I'd play up to 75 yards as necessary and trust Josh Jacobs to get us over the line.
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Chiefs vs. Bills Best Bets
This game looks awesome and unpredictable.
When Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen square off, there's always potential for Game of the Year. That means I have no interest in a side or total here — just give us a great game! — but there's also no way I'm sitting this one out entirely.
I made 11 different bets on this game and have an entire 1500-word article detailing my bets and multiple Same Game Parlays (SGPs) with full explanations, so you can read more there.
I'm eyeing three specific angles: Josh Allen rushing overs, Travis Kelce receiving overs, and a close game late that likely comes down to whichever team has the ball last.
Here are my 11 Chiefs–Bills bets in honor of Week 11, already logged in the Action App:
- Josh Allen over 6.5 rushing attempts -135 (1 unit)
- Allen over 9.5 rushing attempts +375 (0.25 units)
- Josh Allen over 30.5 rushing yards -115 (1 unit)
- Allen 50+ rushing yards +235 (0.25 units)
- Travis Kelce over 65.5 receiving yards -110 (0.75 units)
- Kelce 8+ receptions +165 (0.5 units)
- Kelce 10+ receptions +500 (0.25 units)
- Chiefs +7.5 & Bills +7.5 SGP -125 (1 unit)
- Both teams to score in every quarter +1100 (0.25 units)
- SGP #1: Allen o8.5 att & o30.5 yds, Kelce o65.5 yds, Chiefs +7.5, Bills +7.5 +1000 (0.25 units)
- SGP #2: Allen o8.5 att & 50+ yds, Kelce 10+ rec & 80+ yds +1800 (0.25 units)
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Week 12 Lookahead: Ravens vs. Chargers
I'm already fading the Chargers this Sunday night against the Bengals on the Hot Read, so this is effectively a double down on that position.
Every metric says the Chargers defense has been elite thus far, but I'm not sure this unit has really been tested by a great offense. LA has faced only two opponents in the top half of the league by DVOA offensively — that was the Chiefs and Cardinals, neither in great form, and the Chargers lost both games at home.
LA has yet to face an offense as good as the Bengals on Sunday night, and if this defense fails to pass that test, it will only get harder against a Ravens offense that's top of the league in virtually every metric. The Chargers pass defense in particular remains untested but is about to face two QBs playing as well as anyone right now in Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
If I'm right about the Chargers defense being somewhat exposed by Burrow and the Bengals, this line will have to rise toward Baltimore. The Ravens will either be coming off an impressive win in Pittsburgh, raising the line, or playing after a fourth loss in more of a desperation spot fighting for wild card positioning. Either way, it looks like a great spot for Baltimore, which is also coming off extra rest last week.
The Chargers are playing better offense these days but don't have the weapons to hit this vulnerable Ravens pass defense with explosives. It's still a run-heavy team that probably won't be able to run to open up the pass either.
The Ravens just won by a point, but the last time they won a game previously that wasn't by at least three points was way back in December 2022, so I'm treating this as close to a moneyline position against a team with zero or maybe even negative home-field advantage.
Monday night road favorites of 3-to-7 points are 49-36-1 ATS (58%) over the past two decades — and don't be surprised if this ends up closer to seven than three by kickoff.
This may be the Harbaugh Bowl, but one guy's roster is just way better. Grab Ravens -3 while it's there.
Week 12 Lookahead: Commanders vs. Cowboys
The Commanders led the Eagles heading into the fourth quarter on Thursday night but couldn't finish the job, so Washington is facing a two-game losing streak now and needs to right the ship at 7-4.
That should mean the team shows up focused and ready, coming off extra rest, with Dan Quinn in a revenge spot against his old team. Dallas will be coming off short rest after playing Monday night in something of a rivalry game against the in-state Texans, a game where the Cowboys could be blown out and push this line toward -13 or beyond.
This is a rivalry too, but that doesn't mean the games have been close. Five straight games in this division rivalry have finished with a margin of at least 15 points, and nine of the last 10 matchups have finished within double digits, covering this big spread. The average margin of victory during that stretch is 23.5 points, and the last game closer than seven was all the way back in 2018.
For whatever reason, games in this rivalry typically aren't close.
Dallas is a bad football team. The Cowboys weren't very good even with Dak Prescott, and they looked awful under Cooper Rush last week.
Dallas already has three losses by at least 25 points, plus fake close losses to Baltimore and San Francisco thanks to garbage time. The Cowboys defense has allowed 34.5 points per game its last four games.
Washington has three wins already by at least 21 points. This looks like a great bounce-back spot and a chance to grab this line before it hits -10 and possibly goes well beyond.
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