The NFL's yearly foray into Saturday games begins in Week 16 with a pair of matchups between playoff contenders jockeying for positioning.
We start with the Texans heading to Kansas City, where they're 3.5-point underdogs against the AFC's top seed. Then, we have an AFC North rematch between the division's two best teams, with the Steelers clinging to a one-game lead over the Ravens.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Saturday.
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NFL PrizePicks Plays for Saturday
Derrick Henry More Than 1.5 Receiving Yards
Given that Henry has yet to finish a game at exactly one (or negative) receiving yard, this is effectively picking whether he'll catch a pass.
Baltimore has played 14 games this season, and Henry has catches in nine of those. Considering the effective odds needed to win at PrizePicks, his 64% rate of hitting the MORE is well over what we need.
Additionally, Pittsburgh has allowed a slightly above-average number of catches to running backs on the season. I'm not sure that's a big factor here, but it certainly doesn't hurt.
Najee Harris Less Than 14.5 Rush Attempts
In each of the Steelers' past two losses, Harris was outsnapped by fellow running back Jaylen Warren. Pittsburgh obviously prefers the more explosive Warren in negative game scripts, thanks to his solid work in the passing game.
This week, they're on the road in Baltimore as 6.5-point underdogs. That means they're likely to find themselves trailing for big chunks of this game, which means less opportunities for Harris.
Our NFL Props Projections have Harris for a median carry count of just 11.5 this week, well under the line at PrizePicks. That's a bigger edge than his 48.5 rushing yards line, though given Baltimore's top-five run defense by DVOA, I'd be ok with either option.
Patrick Mahomes Less Than 16.5 Fantasy Points
Mahomes has failed to clear this line in either of his past two games. Those came against the Browns and Chargers, who rank 25th and seventh in DVOA against the pass.
This week, he draws a Texans team that ranks first in that category. Additionally, this game is outside in December at Arrowhead. While the conditions aren't especially difficult, passing yards have been 8.6% lower in similar scenarios, per RotoGrinders' WeatherEdge tool.
There's also the issue of Mahomes' ankle. He limped off the field late in Kansas City's Week 15 win over the Browns, and was initially reported as week-to-week. While Mahomes has practiced in full so far this week, it's fairly likely he's at less than 100%.
While Mahomes is far from a rushing quarterback, he's less likely to contribute anything with his legs this week. That makes it even more likely he stays below this line. On top of that, there's also a non-zero chance he aggravates the ankle and is forced to leave the game early, which is obviously a good thing when taking the LESS line.
Joe Mixon More Than 59.5 Rushing Yards
Mixon has cleared 100 rushing yards in six of nine games since returning from an early season injury, and has been the focal point of the Texans' offense in many of their games.
Two of the games in which he failed to hit that mark were losses, to the Lions and Titans. Still, he's gone over 59.5 in two of the four losses he's been active in, compared to four of five wins.
The Texans winning (or at least leading) correlates well with Mahomes finishing under his fantasy points square. While Houston is an underdog, the stat is just 2.5 points, so it should be fairly close.
Plus, the conditions that make it harder to throw also boost rushing attempts slightly, another positive sign for Mixon. We're projecting him to beat this line by nearly 20 yards.
