The final Monday Night Football game of the season is here, and it's an NFC Championship rematch between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Monday Night Football.
NFL PrizePicks Plays for Monday Night Football
- Jahmyr Gibbs More Than 21.5 Fantasy Score
- Ricky Pearsall More Than 4.5 Fantasy Score
- Jake Moody More Than 6.5 Kicking Points
- George Kittle Less Than 7.5 Receiving Targets
Jahmyr Gibbs More Less 21.5 Fantasy Score
Counting the game against the Bills that David Montgomery exited early, Jahmyr Gibbs has topped 25 fantasy points in his two games as the Lions' unquestioned lead back.
There was some coach-speak about limiting his reps last week, but he saw 23 carries and five targets in a blowout win over the Bears. Now, Detroit is taking on a run-runnel 49ers defense that ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass but 24th against the run.
The reason I'm opting for fantasy points instead of rushing yards is that Detroit might actually ease off Gibbs this week, especially after the Vikings won their Week 17 matchup.
However, if they're able to ease off Gibbs, it's probably because he scored a touchdown or two early — which should secure the MORE on his fantasy points projection, but not necessarily his rushing yards.
Given Gibbs' passing game involvement, the fantasy points pick covers more bases.
Ricky Pearsall More Than 4.5 Fantasy Score
This is a wildly low projection for Pearsall considering the game script. In the last two 49ers games, both losses, Pearsall saw four targets in each game.
Pearsall gets the biggest bump of any 49ers wide receiver when facing man coverage on defense, with his target share more than doubling. Detroit plays man at by far the highest rate in the league, which is another good sign for his workload.
It would make sense for the 49ers to feature their rookie more this week in order to get him some experience, given that their season is already over. Against a banged-up Lions defense, I like his chances to make the most of that opportunity.
Jake Moody More Than 6.5 Kicking Points
The 49ers are implied for more than 23 points against the injured Lions defense. While Detroit's defense has been struggling overall recently, one area in which it has excelled is the red zone.
Detroit has a top-10 red-zone defense in touchdown rate allowed on the season. On the other hand, San Francisco ranks 25th offensively.
We have Moody projected for roughly 7.4 kicking points, with strong odds that a drive or two stalls out in the red zone.
George Kittle Less Than 7.5 Receiving Targets
Kittle has just one game since Oct. 8 with more than seven targets; I don't see him breaking that tendency this week.
While the game script is likely to force the 49ers to the air, they're without their top two left tackles while their right tackle is on the pessimistic side of questionable. That could lead to Kittle being asked to stay in and block on more Brock Purdy dropbacks than normal.
Detroit's man-heavy scheme also tends to filter targets away from tight ends. The Lions have faced the fifth-most passing attempts of any NFL team, but the fourth-fewest targets to tight ends.
While I also like the LESS pick on Kittle's yards, this pick removes the chance of a big play or two ruining the play, making it my preferred option.
